Note to Self: predictions for 09/10
If the Kings manage 245 goals for and 230 goals against, they will make the playoffs. Last year: 207/234. So basically, play the system and add 38 more goals. How hard is that?
Wait…how hard is that?
In the entire history of the Kings, they have managed to hit both those marks in the same season (at least 245 goals for and no more than 230 goals against) twice. In 1974-75, which was their 105 point season. And in 2000-2001, the year in which they lost in the 2nd round to Colorado in 7 games after beating Detroit.
In terms of that big a jump in goal production from one year to the next… They did it the first year after the lockout, but it’s hard to know what that means. They did it in ’99-00, which was the year they added Palffy and Smoke. They added about 50 goals in ’88 somehow. ’99-00 seems like the interesting point of comparison. That year, add Palffy and Smoke, subtract Jokinen. This year, add Smyth and Williams, subtract POS and Calder. Neither Smyth nor Williams is a pure goal scorer like Ziggy, but it does seem to me, at least potentially, to be the same magnitude of upgrade, call it the Lombardi version, the crash the net version of the Palffy upgrade.
Also, it’s reasonable to expect more production from Doughty, Moller, Simmonds and Purcell — rookies who are getting better — and from Kopitar, Brown and Stoll — “veterans” who underperformed and should/will bounce back.
So I’m going to say it’s somewhere between possible and likely that the Kings will hit 245 this year. 2.99 GPG. Let’s just call it 246, for an even 3.00 GPG.
Brashear to Rangers, Smyth to Kings, now Ward to Carolina…anyone see the pattern here?
What’s next? Claude Lemieux to the Wings?
From ESPN: National Football League goes after big game in landmark American Needle antitrust case
Fast forward to a high-definition picture of sports late in 2010. Here is the news of the day, scrawling across the bottom of your TV screen or mobile Web device:
• LeBron James, who had been expecting a free-agency bonanza when his contract with the Cleveland Cavaliers expired after the 2009-2010 season, opens the 2010-11 season with … the Cavs, the only team with the right to sign him. Cleveland retains the NBA MVP by slotting his salary into the new league-wide scale.
• Minnesota Vikings defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier, the hottest commodity for every opening in the NFL over the past six months, signs on to be the new head coach of the Dallas Cowboys … at a league-determined salary that will pay him far less than he’d have made if the Denver Broncos had chosen him over Josh McDaniels in 2009.
• The Ricketts family, new owner of the Chicago Cubs, scraps plans for its own cable channel because Major League Baseball has barred all such broadcasts, as well as webcasts, by individual teams.
• A young Detroit Red Wings fan who has saved his pennies for months shells out $300 to buy a replica sweater that would have cost him $80 in 2009.
The deciders of the future of sports? These nine Supreme Court Justices (minus David Souter, front right, and plus Sonia Sotomayor, who has yet to be confirmed) could dramatically change the landscape.
• Lockouts and strikes loom large in all four major team sports as an era of relative peace on the sports labor front ends and owners begin to exercise their new power over player unions.
Unlikely?
Discouraging?
It could happen.
All of those scenarios, in fact, could become realities if the NFL triumphs in a case now under consideration in the U.S. Supreme Court. Experts agree that the case known as American Needle vs. NFL could easily be the most significant legal turning point in the history of American sports.
read the whole mildly terrifying article at National Football League goes after big game in landmark American Needle antitrust case – ESPN.
My only comment: the NFL may have, as the article says, done a headcount of the justices and determined that the conservatives will rule in their favor. But do Scalia, Thomas et al really want to rule against the nation’s sports heroes? I don’t think they do.
From Fantasy Hockey Forums/DobberHockey: preempting a possible Frolov to KHL in 2010 rumor
Interesting tidbit on a Frolov interview in Russian, translated by the often hilarious but rarely nuanced Google Translator:
So, the headline of this, which most people in North America will see, in the translated version, is “Frolov: I am ready to [sic] proposals from Russia.” This is bound to stir up rumors of a possible defection. [But it's also a] sensationalization of what he actually says in the interview, which google translate does a poor job on.
In the second to last question, he is asked “don’t you have a desire to come back to Russia?”. His response is: “I won’t bail on my contract like, for example, Radulov. But, in principle, I am willing to listen to offers. We’ll see what the future brings.”
Earlier in the interview, however, the interviewer asks, “don’t you want to go to a more competitive team at the end of your contract next year?’ He responds: “Negotiations haven’t started yet. The NHL is unpredictable – its a business and you never know what management will decide.”
“But every year I’ve had a greater desire to make the playoffs with LA in particular. It means a lot to rise from the bottom with the team with which you’ve debuted.”
If people in North America pick up on this interview, it is very likely they’ll pick up on the former and disregard the latter. But given that the interview was in Russia, the former seems like lip service and the latter suggests his intention is to stay in LA and in the NHL.
Okay?
Cap Idiots Chart (#6) 7/19/09
Cap# = cap hit.
SGND = number of players signed.
C-Sp = cap space remaining.
cush = the off-season cushion (teams are allowed to go over 10% but they must be down to the cap by the time the season starts — or maybe it’s the day before; ask Brian Burke).
perP23 = cap space per player remaining to be signed, to populate a 23-man roster.
perP20 = same thing figured for a roster of 20.
BCush = a team’s bonus cushion.
madness = cap space per player remaining to be signed, to populate a 22-man roster, while recklessly eating up your bonus cushion.
LTS23 = players left to sign to get to 23.
Exciting new black coloration: highlights teams that are working under a self-imposed cash-cap (CBJ) or are otherwise financially hobbled (the others). They have the cap space but (likely) not the will or the cash to help out the folks in the orange or red zones by taking on their salary dumps.
Some comments on this week’s list: almost all of the movement is from the teams with cap space (shockingly). The bottom half of the list is more or less stagnant. The Kings have slightly more cap space per signing left than they did before, due to the lower-than-expected (by me) cap hit for Jack Johnson. Incidentally, since Purcell is supposed to be signed on Monday, I took the liberty of adding him in; my guess as to his cap hit: $900K. We’ll see if I’m right. I’m usually not.
Spector’s Hockey – Latest Blue Jackets and Sharks News.
Tom Reed reports the Blue Jackets may have $10 million in available cap space but they’re a “budget team, not a cap team”, meaning the club is already likely close to their self-imposed ceiling, which could hamper GM Scott Howson’s efforts to bring in a puck-moving defenseman.
via Spector’s Hockey – Latest Blue Jackets and Sharks News..
Which means they will get a special designation in the forthcoming Idiots Chart (note: they are not the idiots, just one more buyer off the market.)
From The Puck Stops Here: Team Corsi Numbers
Puck Stops Here (blog) calculates team Corsi numbers, and the results are interesting. Here’s what he says; my thoughts follow the quote block:
Corsi Numbers are the difference between shots directed at the goal (shots on goal, missed shots and blocked shots) for and against when a player is on the ice in five on five situations. The benefit is that they encompass a lot more events than +/- does. However, whether or not it is a better or comparable series of events is somewhat of an open question.
I have calculated the Corsi Numbers for all 30 teams in the NHL. These can be compared to team +/- ratings.
Team
Corsi Rank
Corsi
+/- Rank
+/-
Detroit Red Wings
1
+918
5
+30
Calgary Flames
2
+717
14
+2
Washington Capitals
3
+664
8
+18
Chicago Blackhawks
4
+653
2
+45
San Jose Sharks
5
+406
10
+16
New York Rangers
6
+405
23
-20
New Jersey Devils
7
+301
3
+38
Carolina Hurricanes
8
+280
13
+4
Columbus Blue Jackets
9
+199
8
+18
Anaheim Ducks
10
+145
12
+8
Los Angeles Kings
11
+105
27
-31
Toronto Maple Leafs
12
+80
25
-26
Boston Bruins
13
+49
1
+60
Dallas Stars
14
+9
19
-11
Ottawa Senators
15
-75
23
-20
Vancouver Canucks
16
-113
4
+32
Nashville Predators
17
-129
20
-12
Buffalo Sabres
18
-131
16
-1
St Louis Blues
19
-251
22
-14
Tampa Bay Lightning
20
-262
28
-34
Pittsburgh Penguins
21
-285
7
+23
Montreal Canadiens
22
-286
17
-5
Edmonton Oilers
23
-323
15
-1
Philadelphia Flyers
24
-347
6
+24
Minnesota Wild
25
-350
21
-13
Colorado Avalanche
26
-354
29
-49
Atlanta Thrashers
27
-415
18
-10
Florida Panthers
28
-499
11
+11
New York Islanders
29
-513
30
-57
Phoenix Coyotes
30
-598
25
-26
It is clear that Corsi Numbers do increase the separation between teams. There is an over 1500 point spread between the highest Corsi (Detroit) and the lowest (Phoenix). With +/- this spread is slightly over 100 points. That aim of Corsi Numbers is clearly satisfied. However, it isn’t clear how similar what Corsi and +/- measure is. The order of teams in the two rankings is changed significantly. In general, good teams have top rankings and poorer teams have weaker rankings with both systems, but there are some rankings that seem a bit odd (or interesting). The Stanley Cup champion Pittsburgh Penguins were the 21st team in Corsi in the regular season. That is awfully low isn’t it? The +/- leading Boston Bruins fall to 13th in Corsi. The main difference here is that Corsi looks at shots and +/- at goals. Since Boston had the best goaltending in the league, there is a significant difference between the two. The worst Corsi ranking for a playoff team was Philadelphia who finished 24th. Does this show something was wrong with the Flyers or with Corsi rankings? The best ranking for a non-playoff team was Los Angeles, who finished 11th.
via KuklasKorner : The Puck Stops Here : Team Corsi Numbers .
Here’s my interpretation. The reason the Pens have a relatively low Corsi number is that they have a lot of goal-scoring talent (which means they will bury a higher percentage of their chances) and they play a more wide-open style, which means the opponents will get lots of opportunities. The Pens don’t need as many shots/missed shots/blocked shots to get goals, so their Corsi number drops.
Now, the Kings. Why is their Corsi so high? Well, it’s been noted elsewhere that the Kings offensive problems may be due to an incredibly low shooting%. In other words, they don’t bury their chances, but they do generate a lot of chances. This would increase their Corsi. Also, they had some goaltending problems early on. This would mean that more goals against are happening relative to the number of shots/missed shots/blocked shots. That would also raise the team Corsi. Add to that the fact that the Kings play a defensive system that allows few shots (the fewest in the league for most of the season), and it’s easy to see why the Kings’ Corsi was so high.
Why is this good news, and not just b***sh**? Because in one sense Corsi measures potential. It tells us that the Kings are doing two things right: limiting chances against and maintaining a high level of chances for. In order to translate high Corsi into high team +/-, the Kings need to address two things: finish (burying the chances they get, as opposed to needing to create more offense) and goaltending (stopping a higher percentage of shots that actually get through).
Since the Kings did a good job of addressing their goaltending in the second half of the season, and made moves to increase the likelihood of being able to finish chances in the offensive zone (by acquiring players who aren’t “afraid of the blue paint” — Williams and Smyth), these numbers are reason for some small amount of optimism.
From Tom Benjamin’s NHL Blog: Defending McDonough
Tom Benjamin blogs on/for/re the Canucks and weighs in on the Hawks fiasco:
The good news going forward was that the excellent young team grew into an excellent team period. The bad news was that they did this despite the fact that Tallon did little to demonstrate competence. Indeed he made several mistakes – Savard, Campbell, Huet – even before the qualifying offer fiasco. The salary cap has been mismanaged badly, so badly that there will not be enough money to sign three stars – Kane, Toews, and Keith – whose contracts expire this year. Finally, it doesn’t really matter who is to blame for not getting the qualifying offers out on time. The underling who goofed was not instructed properly, or did not understand the importance of the offers, or was not competent. That goes directly to the concern about Tallon – Is he capable of running a large and complex organization?McDonough decided that the answer was “No” and so he pulled the trigger despite the fact that he knew he would get blasted for it.
From Mlive.com: New Blackhawks GM Stan Bowman suggests that cap may not fall for 10-11 season, discusses Hawks’ Red Wings-like ‘one-year window’
Actually, it’s Mlive (from Detroit) quoting a block from the Chicago Daily Herald [with my comments in brackets]:
The Hawks are under the NHL’s $56.8 million salary cap for this season [no, you're not] but part of the reason Bowman was promoted to GM was to navigate the team through next summer when there will be serious cap issues with Keith, Jonathan Toews, Patrick Kane, Andrew Ladd, Adam Burish and Hjalmarsson to re-sign as restricted free agents. Bowman isn’t convinced the cap will go down, as many predict.
“There was some talk during the year that this upcoming cap was going to be down into the 40s, and that didn’t happen,” Bowman said. “It could go down, or it could stay the same or it could go up. So that’s going to play into how we think. [How would that work? Besides, obviously, hoping you don't have to gut the team?]
“Going forward we know it’s going to be difficult, but it’s not only us who are facing this. If you look at some of the decisions the Red Wings had to make, they let (Mikael) Samuelsson and Hossa and (Tomas) Kopecky go and they haven’t added anybody. Not that they didn’t want those players, but they’re up against it as well. We’re going to be in that group soon.” [Except that Detroit managed the cap and Chicago didn't; also, Detroit has these things called Cups.]
Bowman warned Hawks fans, as Tallon did, that the club can’t keep everyone and that tough and perhaps unpopular personnel decisions will need to be made.
“It’s going to be a difficult thing and something is going to have to give,” Bowman said. “If the salary cap does inch up, that will help us. If not, then we’re going to have to decide on our core players and go from there. But we’re not unique in that. We’re no different than the Penguins or Red Wings, teams that have had success.” [except that you're supposed to have to gut the team after you win the cup, not before.]
From Battle of California: More on Doug Wilson
Undoubtedly BoC is already in your blog aggregator, but I’m clipping out this bit anyway, since it’s so true and so much fun to contemplate:
Whatever trade options GM Doug Wilson may have had at the draft (and we can only speculate there) are now fairly diminished. How it affects the Sharks going forward? Remains to be seen.
Still, it was only one summer ago that the Ducks sat in the Sharks’ position — over the salary cap ceiling with most of the league’s summer spending done, trying to unload a useful veteran in Mathieu Schneider. While Schneidermayer carried a significant salary for one more season, he had demonstrated an ability to outscore easy competition and was a useful power play pointman — I initially thought there’d be a hefty return for a year of his service. But as “spending” summer turned to ”waiting” summer, the value of Schneider did shift substantially. Nobody was out to do Brian Burke any cap-managing favors, and Atlanta finally bailed out the Ducks with just days to spare. The return? Ken Klee — played 3 games for the Ducks before being shipped to Phoenix (where the Ducks still paid half his salary). Brad Larsen — never played for the Ducks, having an eternal injury of some sort. Chad Painchaud — I’ve never even heard of this guy; frankly it sounds made-up.
My point being — it’s not fun to be in the ”shed salary” position at this point in the offseason — certainly we’re nearing the point where optimistic trade returns may be out of the picture. Now it’s entirely possible that Doug Wilson has more friends in the GM circles than Brian Burke did, and San Jose is still a great team with a lot of superstars — I don’t think the Sharks are screwed by any means. But the later this summer prolongs, the less bargaining power Wilson is likely to have — could be that the Sharks have to give away players for junk at some point.
via Battle of California – Takes and trash talk from all sides of the NHL’s most pathetic rivalry.
From Fear The Fin: Back, meet corner
From the Sharks’ blog Fear the Fin:
You can argue against the signing of Scott Nichol based on his skill, age, injury history, whatever. Same for Huskins. You could even make the case that the Rob Blake deal was evidence of poor decision making by the Sharks, or that they overpaid for Clowe. But, like it or not, those are the moves that have been made so far this year. No matter how much we bitch and moan, nothing changes.
What’s interesting to me though, is the timing of these deals. I was certain that the Sharks would make a trade before any free agents were added to the club, but as of this morning, no personnel swaps have occured. I’ve talked before about how the Sharks’ cap situation effectively eliminates their bargaining power on the trade market, and it seems as if I was right in that regard.
With the signing of Nichol (1 year, $750,000), the Sharks have just under $900,000 left to sign two forwards (including Mitchell, see below), which is a straight impossibility. That number is without the almost inevitable signing of Thomas Greiss (as it’s really the only NHL job left for him), who made $725,000 last season and will make at least $750,000 next year. In addition, Torrey Mitchell still hasn’t signed, and he’ll probably looking for a contract in the $800K to $1MM range if he doesn’t accept the Sharks’ Qualifying Offer. Even if you think that Couture is ready for full NHL time, his deal pays him $875K annually, so there’s not much relief there either. With the NHL minimum salary for the 2009-2010 season set at $500,000, the Sharks need to find at least $1.5 MM somewhere in order to sign Torrey Mitchell and either bring up Couture or sign a decent free agent. While this is good news insofar as it makes a trade a certainty, it doesn’t do much to suggest that the Sharks will be any better this coming season.
Maybe that’s too much to ask for, since the Sharks did win the President’s Trophy in 2008-2009. However, after Doug Wilson all but guaranteed a new look for the team heading into next season, his strategy for the offseason has been interesting, to say the least. Yes, players weren’t brought back. Yes, some harsh words and strong talk were thrown around. Yes, he signed a few guys. But the drastic makeover that the fans expected hasn’t come yet, and the timing is way off.
Something will come though; a trade is going to have to be made. Cheechoo has been shopped, and offers have been made for Ehrhoff. However, as evidenced by the Chimera for Ehrhoff straight-up offer, the value for some of our players might not be as high as we think they should be. Three possible reasons:
1. Because we’re in San Jose (a place where free agents apparently loathe coming to), we tend to overvalue our own players and have an unrealistic view of what return they should provide. For example, I thought that two picks (A late first and a second) or a young mid-six forward and a second round pick would be the return for Ehrhoff. That’s obviously not the case.
2. The cap situation is well known by other teams, and they’re exploiting the fact that the Sharks GM has backed himself into a corner. He HAS TO MAKE A TRADE, which again, limits his bargaining power.
3. The state of the economy is preventing teams from adding any additional payroll. However, the glut of spending at the start of free agency seems to suggest otherwise.
I’m thinking that all three of these things factor into the Sharks’ current level of inactivity. I don’t want to keep regurgitating old points, but it seems quite evident now that by waiting until now (or later) to make a deal, Doug Wilson has basically shot himself in the foot. If he could go back and do it all again, I’d like to think that he would have been more active at the draft, even if the return wasn’t what he was expecting. It was probably a hell of alot better than the return he’ll get now.
In addition, most all of the decent free agents have now left the market. There still are a few gems to be had (Taylor Pyatt, although, he’ll probably command around $2.0MM after making $1.75MM last year), but most of the solid players have been snapped up. Joel Ward, for example, would have been a perfect fit for this team. He resigned with Nashville for $1.5MM over three years; this contract could have been offered by the Sharks with a trade of Cheechoo at the draft, and they still would be in a better financial situation than they are now.
Hell, maybe the return for Cheechoo at the time of the draft was a third round pick. Maybe it was a fourth. Perhaps Wilson didn’t think that was a fair enough return for the former Rocket Richard Trophy winner. It’s probably not. However, when you look at the big picture, you have to consider the cap flexibility gained from trading Cheechoo as something the other team is giving you in the deal. Would you trade Cheechoo for $3MM and a third? A fourth? A fifth? Any one of those deals is a steal. Because when you think of the possibility that the cap room could be used to sign, say, Ward and Travis Moen, the trade becomes Johnathan Cheechoo for Ward, Moen, and a pick (3rd/4th/5th, whatever). Would you do that deal? That’s almost fleecing on a Thornton scale.
There’s no guarantee that the players would sign, or if the contracts would be the same as the ones they inked with other teams, but I think you catch my drift.
So, the good news is a trade is coming. The bad news? We’re most likely getting worked over in the process. The Sharks will contend next year, to be certain, but probably not at the level that they could have if Wilson could have pulled the trigger a little sooner.
via Back, meet corner. – Fear The Fin.
This is what I’ve been saying all along. Save your cap space and wait for bargains. Several teams (SJS, CHI, OTT, CHI) are going to make some very lop-sided trades.
Russo’s Rants: Fletcher continues to work trade market
This from Michael Russo, who covers the Wild for the (MN) Star-Tribune:
“[I]n the cap system, once you spend your money, it’s spent. So how patient do you want to be? There’s certainly conversation now amongst teams and I expect there will continue to be right until the trade deadline. So the question would be: When do you want to make your play and what makes sense? It’s obviously the process we’re going through on a daily and weekly basis, but it’s tough to handicap.”
So what is Fletcher saying here?
Later in the summer or into next season, some teams are likely going to have to move some bigtime players to get under the $56.8 million cap ceiling or create cap flexibility going into next summer. I know some fans are dying for the team to take a “risk,” but the risk has to be the right once. And if there are no free agents out there, there are no free agents — plain and simple.
You can’t dump players in an NHL world with guaranteed contracts, so if you make a mistake and spend your money on a player that is inferior to one maybe you can get via trade later on, you simply can’t make the next move.
So Fletcher wants to save the cap space now to allow him to hopefully trade for a significant player.
Remember, teams can go over the cap by 10 percent during the summer as long as they get below the ceiling by the last day of training camp. Boston, Ottawa and Chicago are over the cap right now. San Jose’s not over the cap, but if you plug in three or four holes the Sharks still have on their roster, they’re basically over the cap.
What does this mean? Maybe Phil Kessel still becomes available in Boston. Maybe Ottawa’s Dany Heatley can still be had. Maybe Jonathan Cheechoo in San Jose. Eventually, Chicago will undoubtedly have to dump salary — whether that’s Patrick Kane himself, or a Patrick Sharp or Dustin Byfuglien.
The Blackhawks might be fine going into the season because if you send Brent Sopel to the minors and one of their one-way contract goalies (Crawford or Niemi), by my math, they’re under the cap for this season (BUT BARELY).
So do you really want to sign Mike Comrie or Jason Williams now if there’s some sort of chance to maybe land a Patrick Sharp?
This is the stuff that has to be weighed. I agree that when you look at the Wild’s depth chart as it currently stands, there’s one giant hole — whether it’s a top center, or if Pierre-Marc Bouchard can fill that hole, a scoring winger.
But sometimes it’s better to wait — especially if there are few exciting free agents available.
via Russo’s Rants » Blog Archive » Fletcher continues to work trade market.
Sharks sign Scott Nichol, now have at most $400K to sign at least three players, which is about $67,000 each
Good luck with that. I still think Marleau for Stoll is a good idea.
From Ryan Garner@HockeyBuzz.com: How the Boyle and Blake Acquisitions Wrecked the Sharks
The future isn’t very bright in San Jose because the Sharks don’t have the cap space to bolster the roster, don’t have the prospects to force their way onto the roster, and don’t have talent they can move because of either no-trade clauses or exorbitant salaries. Plus, since the team hasn’t had a first-round pick each of the last two years, there isn’t much promise in the pipeline. The Sharks would have a first-round prospect and a little more cap space if they hadn’t made the Blake-Boyle moves.
via HockeyBuzz.com – Ryan Garner – How the Boyle and Blake Acquisitions Wrecked the Sharks.
Martin Havlat (martinhavlat) on Twitter
Just so everyone begins to understand, Dale was like a 2nd father to me.
Los Angeles Kings – News: SIX QUESTIONS WITH BROWN – 07/14/2009
LAKings.com: What are you most looking forward to for next season?
Brown: The playoffs, plain and simple.
via Los Angeles Kings – News: SIX QUESTIONS WITH BROWN – 07/14/2009.
Havlat speaks out on Tallon demotion – From The Rink
Martin Havlat is now a member of the Wild but being spurned by the Blackhawks on July 1 has clearly left him with a bit of a grudge. This afternoon on his Twitter account, he offered some somewhat cryptic comments on the fact the Bowmans have taken over after Dale Tallon was forced out of the GM seat in Chicago.
“I guess everyone saw what happened to Dale…. yes, the story is starting to come out but it’s just the tip of the iceberg,” he wrote at about 1:30 p.m. today.
Two minutes later, Havlat offered: “Lot’s of people are telling me to stay quiet but shouldn’t the fans know the truth? It’s your loyalty, season ticket money and emotions here.”
And, then, finally: “What do you people think? Interested to know your thoughts.”
That’s all he’s said to this point, but maybe that’s enough. It’s easy to infer that, when Havlat wasn’t offered more than a one-year contract, he feels it wasn’t Tallon’s doing — despite the fact he was then the GM.
Sabres Have Defensive Decisions – Die By The Blade
Tyler Myers - Myers had an amazing breakout season in Juniors last year and is expected to compete for a job in the NHL. Myers has accomplished almost everything he can in juniors but may have to go back because of a numbers game. Because of his age he will have to be absolutely outstanding during training cam to earn a regular spot with the Sabres. If there are some injuries he can play up to 10 games in the NHL before the Sabres have to make a decision on whether he stays or not.
Russo’s Rants: Blackhawks fire Tallon
This was coming for a long time. The Blackhawks wanted to fire him after the season, but their playoff run made that trickier from a PR standpoint. I truly believe the latest offer sheet gaffe just gave the very political hierarchy that currently runs the Hawks an excuse to dismiss Tallon, one of the most popular men in the game among colleagues, agents and players.
I’ll talk more specifically about trades in a blog Wednesday before the NHL schedule is released, but the Blackhawks are in deep trouble when it comes to the salary cap. They’re almost $3 million over now and next year they’re at $42-plus million on a cap that will surely come down from $56.8 million. And, they have to sign Jonathan Toews, Patrick Kane and Duncan Keith next summer. What if Toews and Kane want Malkin-Crosby-like second contracts?
If they do, one (Kane) would likely have to be traded.
As for this year, you can be 10 percent over the cap until the season, but then you have to come down. That means they’ll likely have to trade an important player, and probably for prospects and picks. Sending a guy like Brent Sopel to the minors would help get them down, but you’d still have to pay him his $2 million tag.
Basically, the Hawks have mismanaged the cap to bigtime degrees.
Behindthenet Blog: Goaltender Rebound Percentage Leaders
In his work on Shot Quality, Alan Ryder noted that shooting percentage is extremely high on rebounds. That is, in the two seconds following another [i.e. initial] shot [the average sv% is .694]. The overall save percentages for 2008-09:
Overall 1-2 s 3 s 4 s
919 694 807 892
After four seconds, shooting percentages are in the low-to-mid 900s. So it is significant to look at what percentage of a goalie’s shots are rebounds allowed less than 2, 3 and 4 seconds after a previous shot. Here are the league “leaders”:
Goalie PCT2s PCT3s PCT4s
EVGENI NABOKOV 5.52 6 7.61
MIIKKA KIPRUSOFF 5.33 6.24 8.25
CAM WARD 5.31 6.38 7.09
CHRIS OSGOOD 5.25 5.59 6.48
MATHIEU GARON 5.19 5.73 6.55
MICHAEL LEIGHTON 5.16 6.25 7.06
MARTIN BRODEUR 5.08 5.72 6.67
TOMAS VOKOUN 4.98 6.63 8.2
MANNY FERNANDEZ 4.68 5.81 6.78
PETER BUDAJ 4.59 5.37 6.06
And at the other end:
Goalie PCT2s PCT3s PCT4s
CHRIS MASON 3.25 4.42 5.96
STEVE MASON 3.24 4.43 6.22
KARRI RAMO 3.21 5.22 7.22
ERIK ERSBERG 3.18 4.67 5.09
JONATHAN QUICK 3.08 3.77 5.71
JASON LABARBERA 3 4.6 5.61
RYAN MILLER 2.84 3.84 5.76
BRENT JOHNSON 2.69 3.92 4.9
MARTIN GERBER 2.6 3.9 4.72
JOSH HARDING 1.79 3.58 5.67
via Behindthenet Blog: Goaltender Rebound Percentage Leaders.
I’ll have to think about what this really means. But the first thing that occurs to me is: Jonathan Bernier. Gives up 20-25% fewer rebounds than Quick. Regardless of your “rebound” save percentage, that’s one way to solve the problem. Ersberg, we know, is pretty good at rebound control, too.
One stat I would like to see — maybe the guy who did the original numbers already did this, I will have to look — is a SV% that treats a shot and its rebounds as one event. Then you would see the effect of a goalie’s rebound control. For example, a goalie could suck on rebounds, but if he doesn’t give up any, the number is meaningless. Conversely, a goalie could be great on the original shot, but if the rebound always goes in, that — um — sort of cancels it out.
From The Fourth Period: Dale Tallon Finds Solution to His Cap Concerns (say I, not the fourth period; their headline was more like “Blackhawks fire Tallon”)
TFP has confirmed that the Chicago Blackhawks fired general manager Dale Tallon late Monday and an official announcement will be made on Tuesday.TFP Columnist and Comcast Chicago anchor Josh Mora has also confirmed that Stan Bowman, the clubs assistant GM, will be taking over as GM.Tallon was named the eighth GM in team history on June 21, 2005. Prior to becoming GM, he served as assistant GM, and was the clubs director of player personnel from 1998-2002.Tallons job had reportedly been on the fence since the Hawks season had ended.Sources close to the situation tell TFP “the embarrassment over the negative publicity of the contract situation regarding the clubs restricted free agents was the clinching blow.”The Blackhawks were believed to be late in notifying the agents of their main RFAs that they had received qualifying offers. As a result, the Hawks had signed those players, including Cam Barker and Kris Versteeg, to new contracts.More details to come as the story develops.
emptynetters (emptynetters) on Twitter
Can the Penguins just forfeit games against NJ with Lemaire back and spare us all the boredom? It’s only six games.
What We Learned: Boston’s Winter Classic will be interesting – Puck Daddy – NHL – Yahoo! Sports
Bruins reporter for WEEI.com and all-around swell guy, this morning:
“Heard today that Bruins and Flyers are going to have to share same Red Sox home clubhouse between two teams during the Winter Classic. Yikes”
Yikes indeed. Granted, Fenway is the oldest park in baseball, and the unfortunate accommodations are, most likely, because the park is the oldest in baseball and as such has an objectively terrible set-up. I’ve been in the Red Sox clubhouse and it’s barely big enough to hold the Red Sox’ 25-man roster on a given night, and even then with limited comfort.
Now imagine 40 hockey players squeezed into it like sardines. And factor in that, because of that whole Patrice Bergeron(notes)/Randy Jones incident (two players, I should note, that are still with these respective teams), these teams seem to really not like each other at all, how cozy that Red Sox clubhouse is going to feel. Good work, NHL.
via What We Learned: Boston’s Winter Classic will be interesting – Puck Daddy – NHL – Yahoo! Sports.
According to Helene Elliott and Terry Murray, Teubert has gone pro
The situation is different for defensemen Thomas Hickey and Colten Teubert, who turned pro late last season. Hickey was a controversial No. 4 pick in 2007 and Teubert was 13th in 2008.
“They’ll have a chance. They’ll get a very good look,” Murray said. “They’ll probably end up playing all six exhibition games. . . . Both are now ready. They’ve finished their time in junior and it’s time to step up and see where they’re at.”
via Kings take it seriously and do some work privately – Los Angeles Times.
But he hasn’t played four full years of junior, and he’s not 20 till next year, so how is he “finished [his] time in junior”? That would be good. But I don’t quite believe it.
Niagara Gazette – SABRES CAMP REVIEW: Highs and lows from development camp
• MYERS NEEDS WORK: The signing of Steve Montador means 2008 first-round pick Tyler Myers doesn’t have to be ready to step into the Sabres lineup just yet — and that’s probably a good thing.Myers has all the tools, and the 6-foot-6 rearguard has great wheels with a reach that makes coaches drool. He emerged as the season played out in the Western Hockey League, leading Kelowna to a Memorial Cup appearance.That said, his camp was average. Myers found himself off-balance against forwards who probably won’t ever sniff an NHL locker room. He is quick and has the skills to play in the league, but he didn’t look NHL-ready through many of the sessions.
Al Cimaglia Blog – Logjam at forward – ESPN Chicago
Currently, Chicago has 14 NHL-quality forwards signed for next year. That total does not include Aliu, Beach or Jack Skille. Most likely the Hawks will break training camp with 13 forwards, seven defensemen and two goaltenders. Their roster could include only 21 players, but most likely will be 22. As it stands, a 23-man roster is unlikely because of salary cap constraints.
Decisions for Hawks management get more complicated because Beach will not be old enough to play in the AHL next year. A season in the AHL could have helped Beach’s development a great deal. Junior hockey has to be getting old for Kyle. Boredom can often lead to a lack of development or discipline issues. Neither would be good for Beach.
Sharkspage agrees with me
With 8 roster forwards under contract (along with promising prospect Jamie McGinn) for roughly $28 million, and Evgeni Nabokov slated for a cap hit of $6 million, that leaves $1.1 million for at least 3 forwards and a backup goaltender. Qualifying offers were made earlier this summer to goaltender Thomas Greiss (07-08 salary: $725,000), center Torrey Mitchell (07-08 salary: $725,000), and agitating winger Brad Staubitz (07-08 salary: $475,000). All are scheduled for a raise (QO over $1M no raise, under $1M 5% raise, under $660,000 10% raise), giving the Sharks $2.045M in additional salary if the QO offers are accepted.
That would leave the Sharks with 11 forwards, 7 defenseman and 2 goaltenders under contract with a cap hit of $57.745M (55.7M + 2.045M). The San Jose Sharks would be $945,000 over the $56.8M salary cap with one forward left to sign. NHL teams are allowed a 10% overage until the regular season starts.
Like Aaron Portzline said, something has got to give.
via Sharkspage San Jose Sharks, NHL, hockey and local sports blog.
For my crunching of these same numbers, see this.
From Tom Benjamin’s NHL Blog: Bettman’s Nightmare
This a Tom Benjamin post from February, so factor in personnel changes etc. since then.
Revenues would have to fall by about 15% to get to a $46 MM salary cap, so this may be a very pessimistic view. Nevertheless, if it happens, the NHL is screwed. The Leafs are in good shape but many teams are not, and the league as a whole would face a salary crunch of staggering proportions.
The league would go into 2010 season with a maximum payroll of $1.38 billion. Unfortunately, teams have already committed $825 MM to 225 players. That would only leave about $550 MM for the other 465 players if every team spent to the cap. (They won’t. They will probably spend enough to pile a healthy escrow hit on top of the slashed cap, but they won’t spend the entire $550 MM.)
It isn’t enough.
The players signed tend to cost more than the average player – they will earn $3.7 MM in 2010 – but there are still lots of expensive players to be signed over the next two years. The Canucks have Luongo, the Sedins, Ohlund, Demitra, Mitchell, Burrows and Kesler on contracts that will expire, and all of them will get far more than the $1.19 MM per player that will be available.
If the league has salary troubles and some teams are in good shape – Vancouver, Atlanta, Montreal, Toronto, and Minnesota are the five least encumbered teams in 2010 – then other teams must be in deep trouble.
Philadelphia has committed $42.1 million dollars to ten players in 2010. They will have to add 13 players with less than $4 MM. Unless they can give away some salary, they will have to sign a bunch of minor leaguers to minimum wage contracts and dump two or three big contracts to the AHL. Other teams with apparently impossible problems include Pittsburgh, New York, Calgary and Edmonton. A dozen teams lack the space to fill out their roster unless they pay under $1 MM a player.
(As a long time Kevin Lowe basher, I’m nearly delighted the Oilers show up on the disaster list. Assuming they let Cole walk this year, the Oilers would have less than $10 MM to sign 13 players including Gagner, Cogliano and somebody to play goal.)
This CBA can’t handle even moderate drops in revenue. A salary cap at $52 MM in 2010-11 will cause problems when a third of the players are already contracted to receive more than half the money available if everybody spent to the cap.
There are solutions to the salary problem but they all involve Gary Bettman asking Paul Kelly to reopen an unworkable CBA. Call it Gary Bettman’s nightmare.
via Tom Benjamin’s NHL Blog » Blog Archive » Bettman’s Nightmare.
From Tom Benjamin’s NHL Blog: Reacting to the New York Post (Brooks) article
I don’t know whether Brooks is right about CBA relief or not, and I’m not sure that I care. What I care about is the way these lengthy contracts – all of them – obviously circumvent the salary cap. I don’t think the Flyers should be able to get a $7 MM a year defenseman for five years with a $5 MM cap hit. I don’t think the Hawks should get an $8 MM dollar a year winger for a $5 MM cap hit over the next seven years. Will the Flyers pay a price for their Pronger blunder? Will the Hawks come to regret the Hossa signing?
Who cares? If the Flyers pay it is six years from now. If the Hawks pay it is seven years from now. That’s too far away for a price to have any meaning. Nobody has a time horizon that long. This CBA tilts heavily in favour of the big markets without letting them cheat this way. At best, they are stealing cap space from the next decade and spending it now. At the worst, the CBA will change and they will never have to pay it back. A salary rollback and amnesty buyouts? The NHLPA might have something to say about that.
All that aside, Brooks drops this tidbit:
“It would, however, be a shock if the league doesn’t recalibrate as part of a battle that’s certain to include a laundry list of givebacks from the union intended to shrink the cap. Indeed, several general managers have told Slap Shots they believe a rollback of up to 15 percent plus a round of amnesty buyouts will be necessary at the end of next season in order to accommodate a decrease in the 2010-11 cap that is expected to be meaningful.”
This is the first I’ve seen this reported in the mainstream. It depends on where revenues next year, but if Brooks is getting good information several general managers are worried about the scenario I painted in [see Bettman's Nightmare, which I posted above]. If revenues do crash, the CBA isn’t going to work very well.
Kopitar: Playing Hockey Out Of Love For The Game, Not Money (interview pt. 2) – Los Angeles Kings Hockey Fan Forum
Q: Where do you see the Kings and yourself in 5 years? Contending for the title?
A: If I’m completely honest, I have to say I can see us contending for the title a bit sooner than that. We’ve been putting the team together for 3 years now according to the plans of our management, and now the pieces are together. This team will now grow together and I hope to play in the Stanley Cup finals and win a cup sooner than in five years.
Commenter “variable” causes laughter – Inside the Kings
on paper…this team is better than we were at the end of last season…of course, ice hockey is not played on paper…it's played inside a television, w/really small humans and smaller equipment…
Jonathan Bernier interview – Inside the Kings
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News Article Devils Must Demand Compensation if this Occurs – HFBoards
HF Boards commenter “Saugus” says, in response to the possibility of “amnesty buy-outs” next summer:
I can’t imagine any fair way to get compensated if this were to happen, maybe extra draft picks? And even that has its drawbacks, because who decides who gets compensated with picks, and what round do they come in? All the same, I doubt that the NHL will allow amnesty buyouts, because it would be deliberately subverting/violating the CBA to help teams in a disproportionate manner. Bettman may be an idiot, and every other day he gets accused of having a bias for one team or another, but even he wouldn’t be stupid enough to do something this blatant to rescue the big market teams that have overspent. The NHLPA would also fight hard against this because they don’t want to see more players getting bought out of their lucrative contracts, which is what would happen. And we must also remember, this is Larry Brooks reporting here. Several thousand grains of salt are needed.
via News Article Devils Must Demand Compensation if this Occurs – HFBoards.
FLYERS LIKELY WILL BE $AVED FROM OWN STUPIDITY – New York Post
Philadelphia likely will never suffer the consequences for the massive blunder in which management agreed to pay $33.4 million of the total $34.9 million within the first five years of the extension. And thus would be on the hook for a $4.921 million cap hit in 2015-16 and 2016-17, even with the defenseman in expected retirement.
The Flyers will not take the hit because the CBA will be long extinct by that time, with another round of rollbacks and amnesty buyouts expected to bridge the gap between the current labor agreement and whatever comes next.
There are no guarantees, of course, but no one knows the fate of contracts that run beyond 2011-12, which is when the CBA will expire once the NHLPA exercises its pro-forma option to extend the deal through that season.
It would, however, be a shock if the league doesn’t recalibrate as part of a battle that’s certain to include a laundry list of givebacks from the union intended to shrink the cap. Indeed, several general managers have told Slap Shots they believe a rollback of up to 15 percent plus a round of amnesty buyouts will be necessary at the end of next season in order to accommodate a decrease in the 2010-11 cap that is expected to be meaningful.
via FLYERS LIKELY WILL BE $AVED FROM OWN STUPIDITY – New York Post.
If teams are allowed to buy-out big contracts without the attendant cap hit, and (say) ten teams take advantage of this, where are these players going to play? It’s exactly the same problem as the one in which the teams need to find a trading partner: there are limited buyers. The difference being that (1) the teams who are dumping salary don’t have to take a cap hit (if they buy out the player) and (2) they don’t get any picks or prospects in compensation (because it’s a buy-out, not a salary-dumping trade).
Presumably, if the cap goes down to $50MM, then there will be probably about 8-10 teams who need to dump salary, 10-15 teams who don’t need to but also don’t have room to sign anyone, and 5-10 teams who don’t need to dump and CAN afford to sign some of these Brieres, etc..
That’s a lot of guys going to play in the KHL.
Also, woe be to any players who are UFA next summer, if “amnesty buy-outs” come to pass. It’s going to be a crowded market-place.
Idiots Chart (#5) 7/10/09 now with exciting new columns!
Okay, I updated the numbers through Friday evening, but more importantly I pulled out the bonus cushion numbers and dedicated a column to the crackpot notion that some GM is going to consider dipping into his bonus cushion in order to pay for his extravagance. To reiterate the rules related to the bonus cushion: (1) teams have to add their potential bonuses into their cap figure; (2) however, teams are allowed to go over the cap by the amount of their total potential bonuses (a.k.a. “the bonus cushion”), provided that they get back down below the cap before some specific date, which I believe is the last day of the regular season; (3) if the players don’t earn their bonuses, the un-earned portion is subtracted from the cap; (4) if the bonuses are earned, teams must get under the cap by whatever means necessary (e.g. dump salary, send someone to the minors, etc.).
Some people are wondering if Tallon is going to dip into his bonus cushion this season in order to keep his team going. After all, what are the odds that KANE AND TOEWS are going to earn their bonuses?
Accordingly, the new column is called MADNESS. The figure in the madness column represents a team’s cap space per player remaining to be signed, assuming you raise the cap ceiling by the amount of the team’s bonus cushion and assuming you’re shooting for a roster of 22.
Why did I choose 22? Here’s my reasoning: A GM that is willing to fritter away his cushion is not also going to be carrying a roster of maximum size. I am making the assumption (or guess) that he will have already “saved” by going for the 22-man roster. Of course, he could “save” further by cutting the roster down to 21 or even 20, but I don’t think there’s a GM on the planet who’s that crazy. So blowing the bonus cushion on a roster of 22 is the most crazy I was willing to imagine anyone reasonably being with another millionaire’s money. If you think someone might try to go down to 20, feel free to run your own numbers. (Or wait for me to get bored and do it, probably later tonight.)
Cap# = cap hit.
SGND = number of players signed.
C-Sp = cap space remaining.
cush = the off-season cushion (teams are allowed to go over 10% but they must be down to the cap by the time the season starts — or maybe it’s the day before; ask Brian Burke).
perP23 = cap space per player remaining to be signed, to populate a 23-man roster.
perP20 = same thing figured for a roster of 20.
BCush = a team’s bonus cushion.
madness = cap space per player remaining to be signed, to populate a 22-man roster, while recklessly eating up your bonus cushion.
LTS23 = players left to sign to get to 23.
Some other things to mention:
I decorated Dallas and Phoenix with little dots to indicate that, while they live in the green zone, they are reputedly cash poor or otherwise hobbled and therefore might not be in the market to pick up another team’s salary dump.
I added an orangey-yellow color to indicate the two teams who would be nice and yellow were it not for the fact that they have an awfully high number of players to sign.
Teams with no bonus cushion have no entry in the madness column. Teams who are over the cap have no entry in the columns indicating how much money they have left to spend, since they don’t have any.
Note that Chicago is over the cap but they still have room to spend if they flirt with MADNESS.
From The Globe and Mail: a little Lombardi quote that means nothing in the scheme of things
“The thing is too, clearly left wing was our biggest hole. We still have holes in the middle, but we just could not – Hexy and I, as much as you’re tempted and you’re frustrated and you get hammered in blogs for not doing anything – we said, ‘nope, we’re sticking with our convictions.’ Fortunately, Ryan came around. The cap hit is high, but the cash made sense for us.
via Kings making their move – The Globe and Mail.
Frankly, I’m surprised they pay any attention at all. And, come to think of it, who is doing this hammering? I don’t see it on Inside the Kings, and that’s the big fish. Are they reading LGK and Frozen Royalty? I don’t know enough about them to know if they regularly slam Lombardi. Usually, you have to drill down into the comments to get to the Lombardi-bashing.
NBA salary cap memo points to economic trouble ahead for NHL – Allan Muir – SI.com
It’s been broadly hinted for months: After four straight years of growth since its implementation in 2005, the NHL’s salary cap is expected to lose ground for the 2010-11 season as a direct, albeit delayed, result of the worldwide economic meltdown.
We won’t know the actual damage until late next June, after the league and the NHLPA get together to hash out the numbers based on a complex algorithm of hockey-related revenues. But judging by the rumbles, things could get very ugly.
The NBA announced this week that its 2009-10 cap would drop approximately $1 million per team, from $58.68 million in 2008-09 to $57.7 million. That total is still slightly higher than the NHL’s recently announced $100,000 boost to $56.8 million.
At the same time, the NBA issued a memo to its teams, suggesting that the ship had only begun to make contact with the iceberg. Based on projections of declining income, the league speculated that next year’s cap could drop as low as $50.4 million.
We’ll pause here a moment to allow the post-apocalyptic dust to settle.
The NBA memo did include a disclaimer pointing out that the projections could “change based on economic conditions and as more information on league-wide business performance becomes available.” Still, even the NBA’s optimistic high-end estimate of $53.6 million represents a 10 percent slice carved out of this year’s pie. That’s a significant change of fortune. And it begs the question: Is the NHL in for a similar hit?
Nah. Why would they be?
[...]
The NBA’s national TV money, about $30 million per team, is safe. But ticket sales, advertising and marketing deals, arena signage, parking, luxury suite sales and the like are expected to take a significant hit. And these concerns have to be shared by the NHL, a league with a national TV deal (about $3 million per team, in addition to local arrangements) that foreces it to rely much more heavily on the very revenue streams that are so susceptible to cutbacks.
And then there’s the loonie. With 35 percent of league revenue generated north of the border, earnings are affected by the value of the Canadian dollar, a non-factor in the NBA’s cap projections. Overall, the Canadian economy has more successfully weathered the financial crisis. As a result, its dollar, which was trading around 82 cents U.S. back on Jan. 1 is closer to 86 today. That bodes well for next season, but tides can change. If the Canadian dollar swings even a few pennies, it can have a dramatic impact on the league’s overall fortunes.
[...]
Don’t expect a similar prognosticatory pronouncement to come from NHL headquarters . . . not that anyone would place much faith in the words of a commissioner who spent much of the last year misleading the public about the financial crisis in Phoenix. But even without one, you have to believe that the league’s eyes are wide open to what lies ahead.
[...]
Of course, it’s one thing to spend up to $50 million. It’ll be another thing entirely for some teams to cut back to that level. After all, there’s no wiggle room in hockey. No allowance for an NBA-style luxury tax if spending can’t be reined in. No re-negotiating contracts to create friendlier hits. If the cap drops and necessitates a personnel fire sale, then get to it quickly because your neighbor’s going to be running a clearance sale of his own.
And that makes me wonder if I was wrong about Dale Tallon and the wisdom of last week’s Marian Hossa signing. Sure, it could still turn out to be a complete disaster. But maybe in recognizing the financial Armageddon he was facing next summer, Tallon decided to go all-in for the upcoming season and worry about tomorrow, well, tomorrow.
Truth is, Tallon could have a pretty tough time crossing that bridge. Consider that the Blackhawks have more than $43 million committed for 2010-11 to just 13 players . . . and that’s without one cent set aside for franchise cornerstones Patrick Kane, Jonathan Toews and Duncan Keith or the other half dozen players they’ll need to fill out the roster. Unless Tallon can find suckers willing to take the contracts of Brian Campbell ($7.1 million) and Cristobal Huet ($5.6 million) off his hands (hope he has Bob Gainey‘s number on speed dial), a $50 million cap could crush the momentum of last season’s feel-good story in Chicago.
The Hawks aren’t alone in having painted themselves into a corner. The Red Wings have contracted $41.5 million to 14 players in 2010-11 and may find themselves hoping that Nick Lidstrom, a UFA after next season, considers retirement or at least a massive home town discount. Hard to imagine them filling out a roster if he comes back for anything near his current $7.45 million hit. The Rangers have a similar amount committed to just 12 players. The Flyers are at nearly $46 million for just 13 players, not including a starting goalie. And the list goes on . . .
Next year’s math problems are still hypothetical for NHL GMs, but the NBA’s doom-saying memo brings them more sharply into focus.
Via NBA salary cap memo points to economic trouble ahead for NHL – Allan Muir
- SI.com.
Why the Blackhawks can exceed the cap – From The Rink
“Basically, because 2010 is not a year in which the CBA can end, teams are able to have bonuses put them over the cap and then carry that excess over into 2010-11. As a result, they are allowed to, all season, go over the cap to the extent bonuses cause that issue, but if players hit all of their targets, by season’s end they’ll have a huge charge to next year’s cap. (Which we’ve already heard will likely be lower than this season’s.)”
Vancouver’s State Of The Union – Nucks Misconduct
- Gillis made a fat Wellwood joke. AWESOME. Suck it Pudge.
via Vancouver’s State Of The Union – Nucks Misconduct.
Sounds like the Kings “state of the franchise” town-hall-whatever was pretty tame by comparison. And Vancouver MADE the playoffs!
Dany Heatly [sic] Youtube Video [sick] – Hillarious [sic] | Toronto Sports Media Blog
I had nothing to do with this. And I don’t know what Hitler is really saying, but he does seem to be upset with Dany Heatley. Can’t says I blame him.
Dany Heatly Youtube Video- Hillarious | Toronto Sports Media Blog.
Oilers Insider Hockey News and Rumours: Clerical Errors a Bit Bigger Than Getting Caught Photocopying Your Butt
With the news now that Kris Versteeg has been signed by the Chicago Blackhawks to a contract worth more than $9 million over 3 seasons and a full year prior to his original entry level contract coming to an end, one has to wonder what’s been going on in NHL offices around the league.
This is the third similar instance in almost as many days. Just recently, the Blackhawks were forced to re-sign Cam Barker (D), who was likely not in the immediate plans contract wise. Not to be outdone, the Philadelphia Flyers inked Chris Pronger to a seven year extension, not realizing that every single one of those years count as a cap hit to the Flyers teams should Pronger leave prior to the conclusion of the seventh year. Of course Edmonton Oiler fans are not unfamiliar to such controversy, with the current status of Dany Heatley, who is… well is Dany Heatley.
All in all, one has to wonder how team presidents, GM’s and those in charge of professional multi-billion dollar NHL franchises are interviewing candidates for positions of such importance. It’s not like the secretary got caught photocopying his butt and sending out the copies in a memo around the office for a good laugh. These are mistakes that are literally handcuffing each respective team during the summer and possibly for years to come.
There’s more at Oilers Insider Hockey News and Rumours: Clerical Errors a Bit Bigger Than Getting Caught Photocopying Your Butt.
From The Legend of Juraj Mikus – Inside the Kings
From the comments section:
Shakes said:
I know we didn’t get the Sedin twins but i think the next best thing: corner the market on BOTH Juraj Mikus’s.
This would be epic. It’s the stuff dreams are made of. It’s the stuff franchises are built on. Dean would finally have the missing pieces to the almost answered identity question for the LA Kings.
Question: Who are the LA Kings
Answer: We are Juraj. All of us. Even the new trainers. There’s a Juraj in all of us. All of us.
via
The Legend of Juraj Mikus – Inside the Kings
However: Mikuses.
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CAP IDIOTS CHART #4 UPDATE — in which it turns out I am the idiot
…because I somehow only just realized that the active roster maximum is 23 now, not 24. It was 24 for most of my life, so I didn’t notice the last four years of 23, especially since the Kings have never been near enough the cap ceiling for me to pay attention to it. That’s my excuse anyway. I’ve adjusted the chart accordingly. Secondly, there is indeed a 20 player minimum for the active roster. This, of course, means that a team can spend to the cap on only 20 contracts, if it so chooses. By keeping 20 players instead of 23 on the active roster, you can obviously squeeze a little more out of the cap ($2.84MM as opposed to $2.47MM per player on average).
So, in theory, you can have an active roster of 20 Fedor Tyutins instead of 23 Brent Sopels. If that’s your idea of a good time.
However, the potential for disaster is high, since any injury would leave the team short-handed until the injured player can be put on LTIR, and even then the injured player wouldn’t be allowed to come off LTIR until cap space had been cleared. Depending on the waiver-exempt status of the replacement player, this can have undesirable consequences. The Calgary situation at the end of last year, where they couldn’t dress a full bench, is a good example of this.
Nevertheless, I decided to add a new column to the chart, one which calculates the amount of cap space available per player if the reckless madman GM decides to go for the 20 man roster. If the team has already signed 20 or more players, the number in this column equals the remaining cap space.
For example, San Jose, who would only have $171K per player if they had to sign seven players, now can feel free to spend up to $300K for each of the four players they need to sign to get to 20.
I’m still generously subtracting Chicago and Boston’s bonus cushion from their cap hit, since they are the two teams who may be inclined to tempt fate and spend their cushion.
CAP# = cap hit
SGND = players signed
C-Sp = cap space
cush = the 10% off-season cushion (NOT the bonus cushion)
perP23 = cap space per player left to be signed (to fill a 23-man roster)
perpP20 = cap space per player left to be signed (to fill a doomed 20-man roster)
LTS23 = number of players left to sign to get to a 23 man roster. Subtract 3 in your own head for the other figure.
From Working the Corners (it’s a Sharks blog): it turns out Kings fans aren’t the only ones who do this??!!
I’m not going to get all hot and bothered because the Sharks haven’t altered the core group by July 9. Last year people were spitting blood in here because Doug Wilson did nothing on July 1. Seventy-two hours later, Dan Boyle and Rob Blake were on the roster.
NHLSCAP.com – Salary Cap FAQ [and my notes on how it applies to Rathje and the Flyers' Cap Problems]
A player is considered to have a bona-fide long-term injury if, in the opinion of the team, the player has an injury which will cause him to miss at least 10 games and 24 days. Even in such cases, the player’s salary will continue to count against the team’s Upper Limit. This is mentioned at least three times in the CBA, and is repeated in Article 50.10(a):
All Player Salary and Bonuses paid to Players on an NHL Active Roster, Injured Reserve or Non Roster that are Unfit to Play – being either injured or suffering from an illness – shall be counted against a Club’s Upper Limit, Actual Club Salary and Averaged Club Salary, as well as against the Players’ Share.
For players that the team has filed an LTI exception, the team is allowed to exceed the cap by up to the amount of the injured player’s salary with as many replacement players as needed, provided that when the injured player is activated the team comes into compliance with the cap immediately. The team does not get to automatically tack on the amount of the injured player’s salary to the Upper Limit – an example as illustrated in Article 50.10(d) of the CBA illustrates this point:
(a) Illustration: A Player with a Player Salary of $1.5 million becomes unfit to play for more than 24 days and 10 games. At the time the Player becomes unfit to play, the Club has an Averaged Club Salary of $39.5 million, and the Upper Limit is $40 million. The Club may replace the unfit-to-play Player with another Player of Players with an aggregate Player Salary and Bonuses of up to $1.5 million. The first $500,000 of such replacement salary and bonuses shall count toward the Club’s Average Club Salary, bringing the Averaged Club Salary to the Upper Limit. The Club may then exceed the Upper Limit by up to another $1 million as a result of the replacement salary and bonuses. However, if the unfit-to-play Player once again becomes fit to play, and the Club has not otherwise created any Payroll Room during the interim period, then the Player shall not be permitted to rejoin the Club until such time as the Club reduces its Averaged Club Salary to below the Upper Limit.
So – just because a player has a long-term injury does not automatically grant the team extra cap space. A team with a payroll of $44 million that has a player making $4 million get injured doesn’t gain any extra cap space as a result; a team at $54 million and a player at $4 million only gains $1,300,000 (all pro-rated, of course). Relief toward the salary cap only comes if replacing an injured player’s salary would push the team over the cap, and the amount of relief is limited to the amount the team would go over the cap – not the entire amount of the injured player’s salary.
via NHLSCAP.com – Salary Cap FAQ (page 2).
I feel this is not just a technicality, but I’ll be damned if I can figure out why. What’s the difference, for instance, between (1) Rathje’s $3.5MM cap hit being taken off the books, reducing PHI’s cap hit accordingly, and (2) keeping it on the books but allowing PHI to exceed the cap ceiling, and then only to the exact extent it needs to, up to the limit of an overage of the total amount of the injured player’s cap hit?
What is the f-ing point of saying, “Philly is allowed to exceed the cap ceiling by the amount that it has exceeded the cap ceiling, and not a penny more goddammit, but by the way if Philly wants to exceed it a little more it’s more than welcome to, but only up to an overage equaling the cap hit of the injured player, and only until he comes back”???
???
(?)
Why not just say, “Philly’s cap ceiling is increased by the amount of the injured player’s cap hit”? Too easy?
Similarly, what the point of saying that, “all injured player’s cap hits continue to count against the team’s cap and will not be removed, and there will be no relief so don’t even ask, unless of course replacing the injured player (up to the limit of the injured player’s cap hit) causes the team to go over the cap ceiling, in which case okay fine be my guest”?
I mean, who cares what your cap hit is if you’re in no danger of exceeding the ceiling? Is this some way to protect teams trying to stay at the floor, allowing them to do so with a roster of injured players? Could that really be it? Because it’s about the only thing that makes any sense to me.
I give up. How many Juraj Mikuses are there? (And just how excellent is his missile?)
It appears to me to be one guy who was drafted by Montreal, remained unsigned, went back into the draft, was drafted by Toronto, possibly went unsigned again, and possibly now has been invited to the Kings rookie camp, and is either 6’1″ or 6’4″, is right handed or else left handed and plays forward but maybe defense. Possibly these are pictures of him. Or them.
Inside the Kings commenter “Cynic” ran an article on him through Google Translator and got this: “It is a tall, outspoken, intelligent player with good hands and excellent missile.”
Nice. Lombardi said we needed that, I think.
Okay, but this guy (below, maple leaf sweater) is not the same guy as the skinny one. Right? So maybe there are two. It’s certainly funnier if there are two completely unrelated Juraj Mikuses both playing hockey, maybe both in the NHL.
I mean, I assume they’re not from the same family. Because that would be weird.
NHL Teams Hunt for Talent in a Frenzied Bazaar – WSJ.com
Since most traditional hockey stats focus solely on offensive production, a better way to measure all-around talent is to pinpoint the players who are most important to their teams. To do this, we can rank every skater by who played the most in “clutch” situations—the last two minutes of tied or one-goal games. Those playing in these scenarios are, by and large, the most talented players in the league—NHL coaches know who needs to be on the ice when the game’s on the line, regardless of egos or contracts.
So which team has grabbed the most talent by this measure? Los Angeles has been the biggest gainer thus far, signing two of the top-five clutch-time players who were available, notably Ryan Smyth, who played in more than half of Colorado’s crucial minutes last season.
Montreal has been the busiest, replacing almost 50% of its clutch minutes with five players who played at least 32% of their old team’s key ice time. The Rangers also cut ties with some big names, but picked up Marian Gaborik, who topped our list of clutch players. The biggest loser figures to be Florida, which lost its top two defensemen. Anaheim and Pittsburgh also took a big hit, losing multiple top-four defensemen each.
via NHL Teams Hunt for Talent in a Frenzied Bazaar – WSJ.com.
CAP IDIOTS CHART #3 7/9/2009, now with Philly and Chicago asterisks!
[UPDATE: the latest chart is here. But don't let that stop you from reading all of this nonsense.]
On the last chart I screwed up the Philly numbers, as I took the totals from the nhlnumbers cap hit chart without noticing that the site nonsensically included LTIR figures in the cap hit. This especially makes no sense for a player that is retired. I got some flak from this vis-a-vis Philly fans who wanted to make sure I understood that they were NOT one million over the cap with four players left to sign, but were in fact two million under the cap with five players left to sign.
This is the difference between having not enough money to sign four players and not enough money to sign five players.
But it does make Philly’s situation marginally less horrible, since they don’t necessarily have to dump one of the big salaries. If they are happy pushing their noses right up against the cap ceiling, they can dump one of the two players they have under contract who isn’t one of the big boys but still has a contract big enough to help them squeeze under the ceiling. These two contracts belong to Carle and Jones.
Having corrected this LTIR error, I decided to make a couple of adjustments to the chart, anticipating that, for example, Chicago fans might complain that they have a huge bonus cushion (the biggest in the league) and therefore have $3.8MM more cap space than my chart shows. The bonus cushion allows teams to go over the cap up to the cushion amount in order to pay bonuses, but if they do so, the overage comes out of the next season’s cap ceiling. Since Chicago is in full-scale apocalypse mode next summer, with its big RFA clusterf***, I highly doubt they are going to want to make their situation exponentially worse by lowering their cap another $3.8MM. Of course, they could also just make the insane assumption that Kane will not earn his bonus, in a contract year no less. No rational GM would use his bonus cushion in such a reckless manner. But since I said Chicago would not be stupid enough to sign Hossa and put the Kane and Toews RFA contracts in jeopardy, I have to leave open the option that they are stupid enough to spend their bonus cushion this season. Accordingly, three asterisks (***) next to Chicago’s name and I have subtracted their bonus cushion from their cap hit. They get a soft-red designation because that’s where they belong. I also subtracted Boston’s bonus cushion from their cap hit, because they are the only team in cap trouble who has a significant bonus cushion.
Other notes:
Ottawa has jumped to the front of the idiot line by signing Kovalev. Anaheim jumped into the gray by signing Koivu. Detroit hasn’t signed anybody, but their cap situation improved markedly due to Hudler’s defection. Obviously, no Hudler is bad for Detroit, but it’s good for their cap figure.
Bottom line: you’ve still got 6-8 motivated sellers, and (being really generous) something like 8-10 teams who can comfortably take on salary. Considering that two of those teams, Dallas and Phoenix, are in serious financial trouble, I think it’s more like three really comfortable buyers, and maybe five more who can do it but it will cause some pain.
I wonder who will blink first.
How Much Did Dale Tallon Hurt Chicago Last Summer? – Bird Watchers Anonymous
Last summer the Chicago Blackhawks were declared the big “winners” of free agency. But one year later that summer spending spree is shaping up as A FRANCHISE CRIPPLING EVENT –one that will lower the ceiling on an other wise outstanding collection of young talent. Last season the Blackhawks were not only one of the very best teams in the NHL teams, they were also one of the very youngest. All things being equal they should improve as part of the maturation process–even without adding any new talent.
The true test of a GM sitting on a gold mine of talent is not not screw it up (Mike Milbury = fail as NYI GM) and to find the key complimentary pieces that patch roster holes. This summer Chicago GM Tallon essentially swapped out Marian Hossa for Martin Havlat, unlike Eric Duhatschek I count that as a modest upgrade given Hossa’s health record and outstanding penalty kill skills. (Oh course he also had to throw $1.2 million at the gift-with-purchase Tomas Kopecky too.)
But the decisions that will haunt the Blackhawks for years were made last summer, when the team handed out $5.6 to G Christobal Huet and $7.1 million per year to Brian Campbell. That’s nearly $13 million in cap space allotted to a not-really-elite netminder and a defensemen who is skilled only at one end of the ice. Throw in the fact that Chicago already had an underperforming Stanley Cup goalie under contract and things only look worse.
Fast forward to the Free Agent Frenzy of 2009 and you can see that if Chicago had been content to wait out the final year of Nikolai Khabibulin’s contract, they could have landed an average goalie (Martin Biron) for far less than what they are paying Huet ($5.6 million) now. In fact, the goalie market is ended up being flooded with the return of Ray Emery and the arrival of “The Monster” from Sweden. There are only 30 starting jobs and more than 30 aspiring starters. In fact the goalie tandem of the Philadelphia Flyers (a playoff team) are still without jobs.
Now let’s move forward in time to next summer. Let’s say that NHL revenues hold steady next season–if revenue growth is flat the salary cap will fall by nearly $3 million next season. Why? Because the NHLPA invoked the 5% kicker. The kicker is essentially an assumption revenue will be growing and that teams can spend that revenue growth in the sames season that it is generated. So the 2009-2010 cap number assumes revenue growth of 5% but most people consider this assumption VERY unlikely. What if it falls as many expect? What if it falls by 5%? Well then the cap is going to drop not just $3 million but perhaps as much as $4-6 million. If the upper limit of the cap drops by $4 million it will be at about $54 next summer.
Okay?
It’s longer; read the rest at How Much Did Dale Tallon Hurt Chicago Last Summer? – Bird Watchers Anonymous.
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