Cap (Idiots) Chart #?: Kessel Edition (bonus: why is Vancouver suddenly over the cap? I can’t figure out when that happened…)

Lots of movement. The red zone is getting full, as one would expect in September. VAN has leapt to the head of the pack, and (as I mentioned above) I can’t figure out when that happened. I must have blinked. But I can’t figure out who they signed either. OTT has dropped back into the yellow as a result of you-know-what. NYR still has a bunch of guys to sign. As before, “cush” refers to the off-season cushion, not the bonus cushion (that’s “BCush”), “per23″ is the amount of cap space left per player left to sign to get to a roster of 23. “Madness” is the amount per player to get to a roster of 22 if the GM is insane and blows the bonus cushion. “LTS23″ is roster spots left to sign to get to a roster of 23. I’m very curious to see how each of the red zone teams are going to address their overages. Will they all choose the MacLaren option, dumping someone in the minors? How many salary dump trades will occur? Is San Jose planning on going with the roster minimum of 20?

Cap Idiots Chart #7: End of August Edition

Some movement since last time. Vancouver (Thanks to the Schneider signing and the trade with San Jose) leapt into the lead in the red zone, at nearly $3MM over the cap with 25 players signed, all of them defensemen. So they’re going to have to do something, I guess. OTT, BOS and CHI have held steady, because what else are they going to do (other than dump salary, I mean). Detroit has a new problem with Hudler possibly coming back to them at the worst possible time, causing them to have to either make room or trade his rights. Ottawa obviously hasn’t moved Heatley, and if they don’t they’re going to have to move someone else. San Jose helped themselves by trading away some salary, but they’ve still got 3-6 players to sign with about $3MM to do it.

Again, CAP = cap space; SGN = number of players signed; C-Sp = cap space; cush = summer wiggle room (teams have to get down to the hard cap number by the last day of the pre-season; the number in this column represents cap space plus the summer cushion); /P23 = cap space available per player remaining to be signed (to get to a roster of 23); /P20 = cap space available per player remaining to be signed (to get to a roster of 20); BCush = bonus cushion; madness = cap space available per signing to get to 22, if a team is insane and is willing to spend its bonus cushion (I picked a roster of 22 on the assumption that no team would be balls-out crazy enough to blow its bonus cushion and under-populate its roster; call me naive); LTS23 = players left to sign to get to 23. Oh, and the teams in black are the ones who, for whatever reason, appear to have a self-imposed cash cap.

Cap Idiots Chart (#6) 7/19/09

Cap# = cap hit.

SGND = number of players signed.

C-Sp = cap space remaining.

cush = the off-season cushion (teams are allowed to go over 10% but they must be down to the cap by the time the season starts — or maybe it’s the day before; ask Brian Burke).

perP23 = cap space per player remaining to be signed, to populate a 23-man roster.

perP20 = same thing figured for a roster of 20.

BCush = a team’s bonus cushion.

madness = cap space per player remaining to be signed, to populate a 22-man roster, while recklessly eating up your bonus cushion.

LTS23 = players left to sign to get to 23.

Exciting new black coloration: highlights teams that are working under a self-imposed cash-cap (CBJ) or are otherwise financially hobbled (the others). They have the cap space but (likely) not the will or the cash to help out the folks in the orange or red zones by taking on their salary dumps.

Some comments on this week’s list: almost all of the movement is from the teams with cap space (shockingly). The bottom half of the list is more or less stagnant. The Kings have slightly more cap space per signing left than they did before, due to the lower-than-expected (by me) cap hit for Jack Johnson. Incidentally, since Purcell is supposed to be signed on Monday, I took the liberty of adding him in; my guess as to his cap hit: $900K. We’ll see if I’m right. I’m usually not.

Idiots Chart (#5) 7/10/09 now with exciting new columns!

Okay, I updated the numbers through Friday evening, but more importantly I pulled out the bonus cushion numbers and dedicated a column to the crackpot notion that some GM is going to consider dipping into his bonus cushion in order to pay for his extravagance. To reiterate the rules related to the bonus cushion: (1) teams have to add their potential bonuses into their cap figure; (2) however, teams are allowed to go over the cap by the amount of their total potential bonuses (a.k.a. “the bonus cushion”), provided that they get back down below the cap before some specific date, which I believe is the last day of the regular season; (3) if the players don’t earn their bonuses, the un-earned portion is subtracted from the cap; (4) if the bonuses are earned, teams must get under the cap by whatever means necessary (e.g. dump salary, send someone to the minors, etc.).

Some people are wondering if Tallon is going to dip into his bonus cushion this season in order to keep his team going. After all, what are the odds that KANE AND TOEWS are going to earn their bonuses?

Accordingly, the new column is called MADNESS. The figure in the madness column represents a team’s cap space per player remaining to be signed, assuming you raise the cap ceiling by the amount of the team’s bonus cushion and assuming you’re shooting for a roster of 22.

Why did I choose 22? Here’s my reasoning: A GM that is willing to fritter away his cushion is not also going to be carrying a roster of maximum size. I am making the assumption (or guess) that he will have already “saved” by going for the 22-man roster. Of course, he could “save” further by cutting the roster down to 21 or even 20, but I don’t think there’s a GM on the planet who’s that crazy. So blowing the bonus cushion on a roster of 22 is the most crazy I was willing to imagine anyone reasonably being with another millionaire’s money. If you think someone might try to go down to 20, feel free to run your own numbers. (Or wait for me to get bored and do it, probably later tonight.)

Cap# = cap hit.

SGND = number of players signed.

C-Sp = cap space remaining.

cush = the off-season cushion (teams are allowed to go over 10% but they must be down to the cap by the time the season starts — or maybe it’s the day before; ask Brian Burke).

perP23 = cap space per player remaining to be signed, to populate a 23-man roster.

perP20 = same thing figured for a roster of 20.

BCush = a team’s bonus cushion.

madness = cap space per player remaining to be signed, to populate a 22-man roster, while recklessly eating up your bonus cushion.

LTS23 = players left to sign to get to 23.

Some other things to mention:

I decorated Dallas and Phoenix with little dots to indicate that, while they live in the green zone, they are reputedly cash poor or otherwise hobbled and therefore might not be in the market to pick up another team’s salary dump.

I added an orangey-yellow color to indicate the two teams who would be nice and yellow were it not for the fact that they have an awfully high number of players to sign.

Teams with no bonus cushion have no entry in the madness column. Teams who are over the cap have no entry in the columns indicating how much money they have left to spend, since they don’t have any.

Note that Chicago is over the cap but they still have room to spend if they flirt with MADNESS.

CAP IDIOTS CHART #4 UPDATE — in which it turns out I am the idiot

…because I somehow only just realized that the active roster maximum is 23 now, not 24. It was 24 for most of my life, so I didn’t notice the last four years of 23, especially since the Kings have never been near enough the cap ceiling for me to pay attention to it. That’s my excuse anyway. I’ve adjusted the chart accordingly. Secondly, there is indeed a 20 player minimum for the active roster. This, of course, means that a team can spend to the cap on only 20 contracts, if it so chooses. By keeping 20 players instead of 23 on the active roster, you can obviously squeeze a little more out of the cap ($2.84MM as opposed to $2.47MM per player on average).

So, in theory, you can have an active roster of 20 Fedor Tyutins instead of 23 Brent Sopels. If that’s your idea of a good time.

However, the potential for disaster is high, since any injury would leave the team short-handed until the injured player can be put on LTIR, and even then the injured player wouldn’t be allowed to come off LTIR until cap space had been cleared. Depending on the waiver-exempt status of the replacement player, this can have undesirable consequences. The Calgary situation at the end of last year, where they couldn’t dress a full bench, is a good example of this.

Nevertheless, I decided to add a new column to the chart, one which calculates the amount of cap space available per player if the reckless madman GM decides to go for the 20 man roster. If the team has already signed 20 or more players, the number in this column equals the remaining cap space.

For example, San Jose, who would only have $171K per player if they had to sign seven players, now can feel free to spend up to $300K for each of the four players they need to sign to get to 20.

I’m still generously subtracting Chicago and Boston’s bonus cushion from their cap hit, since they are the two teams who may be inclined to tempt fate and spend their cushion.

CAP# = cap hit

SGND = players signed

C-Sp = cap space

cush = the 10% off-season cushion (NOT the bonus cushion)

perP23 = cap space per player left to be signed (to fill a 23-man roster)

perpP20 = cap space per player left to be signed (to fill a doomed 20-man roster)

LTS23 = number of players left to sign to get to a 23 man roster. Subtract 3 in your own head for the other figure.

CAP IDIOTS CHART #3 7/9/2009, now with Philly and Chicago asterisks!

[UPDATE: the latest chart is here. But don't let that stop you from reading all of this nonsense.]

On the last chart I screwed up the Philly numbers, as I took the totals from the nhlnumbers cap hit chart without noticing that the site nonsensically included LTIR figures in the cap hit. This especially makes no sense for  a player that is retired. I got some flak from this vis-a-vis Philly fans who wanted to make sure I understood that they were NOT one million over the cap with four players left to sign, but were in fact two million under the cap with five players left to sign.

This is the difference between having not enough money to sign four players and not enough money to sign five players.

But it does make Philly’s situation marginally less horrible, since they don’t necessarily have to dump one of the big salaries. If they are happy pushing their noses right up against the cap ceiling, they can dump one of the two players they have under contract who isn’t one of the big boys but still has a contract big enough to help them squeeze under the ceiling. These two contracts belong to Carle and Jones.

Having corrected this LTIR error, I decided to make a couple of adjustments to the chart, anticipating that, for example, Chicago fans might complain that they have a huge bonus cushion (the biggest in the league) and therefore have $3.8MM more cap space than my chart shows. The bonus cushion allows teams to go over the cap up to the cushion amount in order to pay bonuses, but if they do so, the overage comes out of the next season’s cap ceiling. Since Chicago is in full-scale apocalypse mode next summer, with its big RFA clusterf***, I highly doubt they are going to want to make their situation exponentially worse by lowering their cap another $3.8MM. Of course, they could also just make the insane assumption that Kane will not earn his bonus, in a contract year no less. No rational GM would use his bonus cushion in such a reckless manner. But since I said Chicago would not be stupid enough to sign Hossa and put the Kane and Toews RFA contracts in jeopardy, I have to leave open the option that they are stupid enough to spend their bonus cushion this season. Accordingly, three asterisks (***) next to Chicago’s name and I have subtracted their bonus cushion from their cap hit. They get a soft-red designation because that’s where they belong. I also subtracted Boston’s bonus cushion from their cap hit, because they are the only team in cap trouble who has a significant bonus cushion.

Other notes:

Ottawa has jumped to the front of the idiot line by signing Kovalev. Anaheim jumped into the gray by signing Koivu. Detroit hasn’t signed anybody, but their cap situation improved markedly due to Hudler’s defection. Obviously, no Hudler is bad for Detroit, but it’s good for their cap figure.

Bottom line: you’ve still got 6-8 motivated sellers, and (being really generous) something like 8-10 teams who can comfortably take on salary. Considering that two of those teams, Dallas and Phoenix, are in serious financial trouble, I think it’s more like three really comfortable buyers, and maybe five more who can do it but it will cause some pain.

I wonder who will blink first.

UPDATED Who’s Vulnerable? (a.k.a. Cap Idiots Chart #2)

[UPDATE TO THE UPDATE: if you navigated here from a link not on this site, go instead to the corrected, updated chart here]

Just a few quick observations before sleep. Since last time, the Kings and Colorado were big movers. The Kings dropped into the gray zone. Colorado went from bad to gray. With the Kings dropping down, the number of buyers is reduced by one.

Meanwhile, in the orange and red zones, everyone’s making their situations worse by varying degrees. Well, not everyone; Washington and Pittsburgh are standing pat. San Jose has shrunk its wiggle room down to unworkable levels. And Chicago has joined Philly in the joyous red zone.

For the hell of it, I granted the Rangers honorary orange status, because any team that must average $1.3MM per player and has THIRTEEN players left to sign, is screwed even though it’s not Chicago or Philly screwed yet. They’ll get there.

“CAP#” = current cap hit

“SGND” = players signed

“C-Sp” = Cap space

“cush” = cap space w/ 10% cushion

“perP” = cap space per player left to sign

“LTS” = number of players left to sign to get to a 24 roster.

Who’s Vulnerable? Who’s Not? (a.k.a. Cap Idiots Chart #1)

[UPDATE: the most current version of the chart, as of 7/9, is here] I’m just starting to run some numbers related to the cap hits for all the teams. What I wanted to see is basically this: who has the least cap space? Who has the most players to sign? And who has THE MOST AND LEAST TO SPEND PER PLAYER THEY NEED TO SIGN? This last is my way of looking at who is going to have to dump salary and who is in a position to pick up that salary.

“CAP#” = current cap hit

“SGND” = players signed

“C-Sp” = Cap space

“cush” = cap space w/ 10% cushion

“perP” = cap space per player left to sign

“LTS” = number of players left to sign to get to a 24 roster.

Here’s what my incredibly primitive number crunching tells me:

There are nine teams that have the room to take on a big salary without giving salary back. Of those nine, the four who are in an especially good position are: the Blues, the Isles, the Kings and the Blue Jackets.

In the light-green zone, Phoenix is ham-strung by bankruptcy (for the time being) and Ottawa is immobilized until it takes care of the Heatley nightmare.

That leaves seven buyers.

Meanwhile, in Salary Dump Land (indicated by orange and red), there are eight teams who are up against the cap and will have to populate this year’s roster with a huge number of entry level contracts. What’s extra delightful about that is these teams are also among the worst ranked teams in terms of prospects, per Hockey’s Future, so where they are going to get these entry-level players is … (1) either from their depleted prospect ranks, or (2) from the teams at the top of the list, the Kings, the Blues, etc.. The teams with all the tasty prospects.

The teams in Salary Dump Land are: the Caps (ironic name, that), Chicago, Pittsburgh, Detroit, Calgary, Boston, San Jose and — the mayors of Salary Dump Land — Philadelphia.

The other thing I notice about this list is that there are eight motivated sellers and seven healthy, available buyers. The other potential buyers are ones who — if they buy — will put themselves in a dangerous position, either of become one of the citizens of the red and orange zones, or of being caught with their pants down with the cap drops several million next June.

So I come back to: seven buyers, eight sellers.

Last point: one of the four advantaged buyers is Columbus. They are currently looking at UFA Nash contract hell. So their ability to buy at this point is compromised. Because, as of this morning’s “Nash not happy with Columbus offer” headlines, Nash is in play.

When I next have free time, I will try to put together a list of which players on the orange and red teams are good candidates for dumping.

[UPDATE: funny that the Kings signed Scuderi to a $3.4MM cap hit, which is -- per the chart on the right -- exactly their "perP" available amount; therefore, mentally adjust the players signed number to 21; the Kings position in the chart stays the same]