Kovalchuk Musings with tons of self-serving disclaimers
The first of which is, I don’t really know if I think Kovalchuk fits in the Terry Murray system, and beyond that, I don’t know how much I care. But it’s possible he might not fit and I might care a lot. Don’t know. Second disclaimer: you might think that Kovalchuk at a $6MM cap hit is dreaming. You might be right. Here’s my math:
10 years, $60MM. Salary in millions from 2010-2019: 11, 11, 10, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1. He can be the highest paid player in the league for three years. Kings can have a livable Hossa/Nash-like cap-hit, and he can retire in seven years and go to the KHL (if it still exists).
Third disclaimer: the deal is Brown and Johnson, plus a prospect and some picks for Kovalchuk. You could expand the trade to include a fourth liner to help us this season, but what I’m looking at here is cap numbers for 2010-2011, and so I’m ignoring the extra ATL player aspect of the potential pie-in-sky deal. Why Brown and Johnson? Well, my reasoning is essentially that Brown is in the middle of his second sub-par season in a row and yet, with the Olympics coming up (and his newly announced alternate-captaincy), his stock has probably never been higher. Johnson, also Olympic-bound, has been a mixed bag. Both have nice affordable cap-responsible contracts. Both would be good PR for ATL. Hey, wait, maybe I’m offering too much!
Doesn’t matter. We’re really looking at cap numbers. And for the cap numbers to work, the Kings have to send some salary back. Will Waddell take Handzus and Frolov instead? I doubt it like I doubted Lombardi could get Smyth for Quincey and Preissing. Adjust your figures accordingly.
Disclaimer #4: I re-signed Frolov at a cap-hit of $3.9MM. You might think he’s seeking $5MM or something. Unless he’s about to go on a goal-scoring binge, he ain’t going to get it.
[UPDATE: some more thoughts on the cap situation for next year vis-a-vis which players you re-sign and which you don't: in this model I traded Brown and re-signed Frolov. If you trade Frolov and keep Brown, the cap figures are roughly the same. I also re-signed Jones. I think this is a reasonable move (since he's been hugely successful for the Kings thus far -- the Kings record with him in the line-up is excellent). But if you don't sign Jones, you're going to have to bring in someone in that salary range. All the d can't be minimum wage rookies.
The other thing I did was assume Schenn will make the team and will have a bonus structure in the neighborhood of Hickey and Doughty. I think this is a necessary assumption.
You might also decide that trading Johnson is a mistake; I think this every other time I re-read this post. But if you try keeping him (and, say, throwing prospects at ATL instead), it pushes us over the cap ceiling. So you have to get rid of someone else who makes Johnson money or better. And that's a list of people no-one wants to lose. So, the bottom line is, you have to get rid of at least a Brown/Frolov salary and hope that you can sign IK to a Hossa-ish cap figure of $6MM.
If he is to get anything approaching $10MM as a cap hit -- and I don't think DL will go for that -- that's another $4MM player you have to lose. Personally, I think it becomes dicey at that price, but the package would undoubtedly be two of Frolov, Brown, Handzus, Stoll or Williams, otherwise the numbers simply don't work. And yes, this factors in all of the players whose contracts expire. If you look at the chart (right), you'll see there's no Purcell, Ivanans, Harrold, O'Donnell or Cloutier.]
The point is, as the chart (generated by capgeek of course) shows, it’s doable under the cap.
And here are the opening night lines:
Kovalchuk/Kopitar/Williams
Smyth/Stoll/Simmonds
Frolov/Handzus/Parse*
Clifford*/Schenn*/Moller*
(swap with Richardson, Loktionov as F13, F14)
Scuderi/Doughty
Jones/Greene
Drewiske/Voynov (or Hickey, I don’t care)
Muzzin (sub your favorite big mean person, e.g. Teubert)
Quick/Bernier
Kings are in the New York Times
A snippet from the New York Times article (the whole thing is linked below):
With Little Fanfare, the Los Angeles Kings Are in the Playoff Chase
They entered Thursday night’s game against Detroit with a 25-15-3 record, and their 53 points placed them tied for sixth in the tightly bunched conference. Any questions about their staying power were seemingly answered in the last week with impressive wins against the division leaders Washington and San Jose. Their 6-2 romp Monday at San Jose gave the Kings a 3-0-1 record against a team that carried an eight-game winning streak and the best record in the N.H.L. into the game.
The question surrounding the Kings is whether anyone cares.
Years of losing and mismanagement and the lockout of 2004-5 have dented the fan base, but there are others who have lost interest, too. The Los Angeles Times, until recently, rarely traveled with the team, a circumstance that prompted the Kings to hire a popular newspaper blogger to cover the team for its Web site.
When the Kings left last month for a three-game trip to Canada, they were in first place in the conference in December for the first time since 1991. But none of the games were televised back home. And when the Kings have been on television, their audience is shrinking. Ratings are down 21 percent from a year ago at the same time, to 17,000 households per game on Fox Sports Net affiliates.
via With Little Fanfare, the Los Angeles Kings Are in the Playoff Chase – NYTimes.com.
However, that’s Brandon Segal. Not Oscar Moller (the caption says Oscar Moller, until they fix it and make me look crazy):
From the Toronto Sun, via KK: Kings Don’t Suck
From Lance Hornby of the Toronto Sun,
FIRST-HALF FAVES
NHL leading scorer Joe Thornton, Jonathan Quick, John Tavares, the Colorado Avalanche, Los Angeles Kings, Ryan Miller, Marian Gaborik, Tomas Plekanec, Steve Sullivan’s comeback, Steve Yzerman’s Hall of Fame induction speech.
WHAT HAPPENED TO …
The Carolina Hurricanes, Columbus Blue Jackets, St. Louis Blues, Philadelphia Flyers, Alexei Kovalev (his four goals yesterday aside), Tim Thomas, Olli Jokinen, Phil Kessel, the KHL and the NHLPA executive.
45 Points in 34 Games…Is That Good?
Well, yes.
In ’74, the Kings had 47 points (18-5-11) and, in ’80, they had 47 points (22-9-3). Those are the only two seasons that beat or equal the Kings’ current record of 21-10-3. Oh, and they’re officially first in the West and 2nd overall. (Philadelphia — they of the quickie rebuild of two seasons ago — are now tied with Toronto for 28th overall. I bring up Philly because so many fans pointed to them as an example of how you can suck one year and “rebuild” in one summer. I guess, in a word, not.)
Best Trade The Kings Have Made Since Gretzky | Bleacher Report
I really don’t know how to describe what I’ve seen this year other then to say, wow. I can’t recall a Kings team having this combination of grit and skill. They are fun to watch at both ends of the ice.
[...]
An interesting story line about the game and the LA broadcast was Heidi Androl was interviewing LA Kings Players fathers. [...]
There was no prouder father in that box then Ryan Smyth’s Dad. He was easy to spot. He looks like and older version of his superstar son. It was that moment I realized how great the trade with the Avalanche was.
When I look at last years Kings roster I see a lot of talent. I see a lot of youth. I don’t see a lot of experience and I don’t see a lot of guys that had been there. I look at the roster now and there is one name that glares back at me Ryan Smyth. Maybe it’s placebo effect that Ryan has on the Kings. I believe he is the definite cure for what’s been ailing this team. I believe he really helps make this team a contender.
Ryan is playing with Anze Kopitar and Justin Williams. Together they make up one of the highest scoring lines in the league right now. This is a line that reminds me of another famous line that the Kings had back in the day. The line has flash, grit, skill and a never say die attitude.
Last year the Kings didn’t win a lot of close games. They couldn’t grind them out. With Smyth not only can they grind them out, they can blow them out. [...]
Anze Kopitar is shooting more [...] and currently leading the NHL in scoring. [...] Smyth being on his side has a lot to do with this. Smyth and Kopitar have chemistry. Smyth seems to always know where Anze is and how to get him the puck. [...]
Toward the end of the second period last night, a period in which the Kings were outplayed, Smyth had the game changer. He scored the type of goal that’s defined his career. It was a never-give-up workman’s goal. He took a shot from the right side, and then took another whack at it and when it didn’t go he circled around the back of the net and slammed it home. This made it 3-2. This goal was at the end of the second and helped set the tone for the third.
via Best Trade The Kings Have Made Since Gretzky | Bleacher Report.
No Pressure, Anze: LA’s Rise Depends on Super-Skilled Kopitar — NHL FanHouse
The 11th overall selection in the 2005 draft, the 6-4 center is the first player in league history from the country of Slovenia. Raised in the steel town of Jesenice, across the border from Austria, Kopitar’s unfamiliar background had scouts questioning whether he was early first round material despite his obvious gifts. “To be honest,” said a scout who follows European amateurs for a Western Conference team, “Kopitar was so big and so skilled that if he was from Saskatoon, he would have been a top-3 pick. Slovenia was the great unknown.”
“No weaknesses … He was playing against the best and held his own. He had star potential and we knew the rest of the league would be following him.”The tantalizing prospect was first “identified” — scout-talk for “Hey, we have to keep an eye on this kid” — by former European bird-dog Ari Vuori for the Kings. Pro scout Rob Laird and then-GM Dave Taylor spent a lot of time at the 2005 World Championships in Sweden mesmerized by Kopitar’s immense talents. “No weaknesses, great size and reach, took passes 15 feet in front of him, composure, work ethic,” Laird recalled of Kopitar. “He was playing against the best and held his own. He had star potential and we knew the rest of the league would be following him.” (The hockey gods have since rewarded Vuori, now the owner of a Stanley Cup ring as a scout for Detroit).
via No Pressure, Anze: LA’s Rise Depends on Super-Skilled Kopitar — NHL FanHouse.
Why Heatley to Kings Doesn’t Make Sense (but still might be good)
Matthew Barry just posted Why Heatley to LA Makes Sense. I’m of two minds. One of my minds could talk myself into pretty much anything. The other has a low tolerance for locker-room poison (e.g. Cammalleri, Blake, Avery). For the sake of argument, though, I’m going to pretend to agree with Matthew’s assertion that Heatley couldn’t possibly pull the same stunt twice (asking for a trade, etc.), because then he would really be toast and would have nowhere to turn but the KHL. I would like to believe that. I would have to believe it once he was here. But I don’t believe it really.
Nevertheless, let’s pretend.
So…what would the Kings have to give up?
I don’t agree that it would be young prospects. First of all, the Kings would need to clear some salary, otherwise Heatley puts them a couple of million over the cap. So someone with a real contract would be going the other way. Who are the candidates? Kopitar? No. Smyth? No. Williams? Have to say no, because that would be weird. Frolov? Call that a maybe (especially given the LW logjam Heatley’s arrival would create — see below, unless I forget to come back to it). Handzus? Well, it’s possible. Brown? People would riot, so…no. Stoll? Maybe. Greene? No. Scuderi? No. That’s it.
So you’ve got yourself Frolov, Handzus and Stoll as options.
Getting rid of one of Stoll or Handzus would weaken us in the faceoff circle, but would eliminate the annoying $4MM fourth line center problem. So that’s got to be an attractive option, even if it would (in the case of Handzus) put a significant dent in Terry Murray’s team defense.
Trading Frolov for Heatley is in my opinion a non-starter. Because I think Frolov will score 35-40 goals this year, and Heatley will score a couple more, maybe 40-50 goals. But that’s for a cap hit of $4MM over Frolov’s cap hit, and at the expense of team defense, since Heatley doesn’t do that. So that seems like a trade that would create more problems than it would solve, just to get 10 extra goals.
Now, what about Stoll or Handzus? Okay, let’s just say it’s one of them. Could I live with that? Maybe. We’ll have to look at what the lines would likely be (more on that later). First, though, we have to finish looking at who else would be part of the package.
The Edmonton deal nixed by Heatley had Edmonton sending Cogliano, Penner and Smid. I immediately notice that this is only about $1MM in cap relief for Ottawa. Let’s tailor a deal that mimics the Edmonton deal. Stoll/Handzus/Frolov is the Penner. Who is the Cogliano? Cogliano is a young center with two seasons under his belt, 18 goals each season, former 1st round pick, on an entry level contract. Who is the Kings’ version of this?
Moller, Simmonds or Purcell. Maybe Lewis. [Cogliano is a step up from Lewis or Purcell at this point in their careers, so maybe a prospect gets tossed in.] For me, personally, trading either of Moller or Simmonds would be unforgivable. I think (hope) that Lombardi feels the same way, since they are two of his success stories thus far in his Kings tenure. Purcell or Lewis? I like them both, but under the right conditions, I might be willing to let them go. In any case, we can call it one of Handzus/Stoll, one of Purcell/Lewis, and …
…who’s the Smid of this deal?
The obvious comparable is Jack Johnson. And that can’t happen, can it? It could, but I don’t want it to. In that case, the deal would probably be something like Handzus, Purcell, Johnson. If not Johnson, the other options are a couple of prospects, like, say, Voynov and Zatkoff or Jones.
(Ottawa is going to want more than Handzus, Purcell and Johnson — e.g. Frolov, Moller, Johnson and a pick — but I’m trying to come up with something I can live with, as a Kings fan who over-values his prospects and doesn’t like n’er-do-wells.)
I mean, Lombardi isn’t going to be able to foist Richardson and Ivanans on them, is he? That would be like getting Smyth for Quincey and Preissing. What? Oh.
Okay, let’s see what the line-up looks like if we give up Handzus, Purcell and Johnson.
Heatley/Kopitar/Williams
Smyth/Stoll/Brown
Frolov/Moller/Simmonds
Zeiler/Lewis/Harrold
(Ivanans)
Scuderi/Doughty
Drewiske/Greene
Hickey/SOD
The thing that leaps out at me about this is that (1) we are over-loaded on the left side, (2) we now have one experienced D on the power-play (Doughty), (3) our fourth line is going to suck, and (4) we will have no shut-down line.
Let’s try it with Stoll instead of Handzus.
Heatley/Kopitar/Williams
Smyth/Moller/Brown
Frolov/Handzus/Simmonds
Zeiler/Lewis/Harrold
(Ivanans)
Scuderi/Doughty
Drewiske/Greene
Hickey/SOD
Better, because now Frolov is in a defensive role, on a shut-down line, and it’s a line that worked last season. But still the fourth line is garbage, and we’ve got a problem on the power play at the point.
And about that crowding on the left side? There’s no chance Frolov is going to stick around willingly to be third on the depth chart behind Smyth and Heatley. So he would be gone next summer…except not because Lombardi would deal him before he could walk, so he would be traded this season, so we’re back to trading Frolov’s 40 goals for Heatley’s 50 (whatever numbers you actually think they’re capable of, I think it’s not really debatable that Heatley is good for about 10 more goals than Fro, at best).
Now, Lombardi could easily sign a couple of crusty old dudes to skate on the fourth line, instead of Zeiler, Ivanans and Harrold. And he could do the same on D, signing — say — Mathieu Schneider for peanuts and using him on the power play. That would be kind of cool, I grant you. So that kinda sorta works. Especially for the one season where Frolov is still here and Smyth isn’t too old yet. That line-up would look sorta like:
Heatley/Kopitar/Williams
Smyth/Moller/Brown
Frolov/Handzus/Simmonds
Lewis/[Chris Gratton]/[Rob Neidermeyer]
(I picked two available names, but you get the idea)
Scuderi/Doughty
[Schneider]/Greene
Hickey/SOD
Drewiske
That’s workable. But the whole point of adding Heatley falls apart when Frolov leaves, unless someone steps up to take Frolov’s place. Loktionov? Okay, maybe. And he’s on the 2nd unit with Moller (not this season, but 2010-2011), and Smyth drops to the Handzus line. Or something. It’s problematic, but I can see it. I don’t really like it, but I can see it. Question is, are any of these iterations better than this:
Frolov/Kopitar/Williams
Smyth/Stoll/Purcell
[Mikus-Elkins-Wudrick-King-Azevedo]/Moller/Brown
Lewis/Handzus/Simmonds
Scuderi/Doughty
Johnson/Greene
Hickey/SOD
Drewiske
I don’t know. I don’t think so.
Note to Self: predictions for 09/10
If the Kings manage 245 goals for and 230 goals against, they will make the playoffs. Last year: 207/234. So basically, play the system and add 38 more goals. How hard is that?
Wait…how hard is that?
In the entire history of the Kings, they have managed to hit both those marks in the same season (at least 245 goals for and no more than 230 goals against) twice. In 1974-75, which was their 105 point season. And in 2000-2001, the year in which they lost in the 2nd round to Colorado in 7 games after beating Detroit.
In terms of that big a jump in goal production from one year to the next… They did it the first year after the lockout, but it’s hard to know what that means. They did it in ’99-00, which was the year they added Palffy and Smoke. They added about 50 goals in ’88 somehow. ’99-00 seems like the interesting point of comparison. That year, add Palffy and Smoke, subtract Jokinen. This year, add Smyth and Williams, subtract POS and Calder. Neither Smyth nor Williams is a pure goal scorer like Ziggy, but it does seem to me, at least potentially, to be the same magnitude of upgrade, call it the Lombardi version, the crash the net version of the Palffy upgrade.
Also, it’s reasonable to expect more production from Doughty, Moller, Simmonds and Purcell — rookies who are getting better — and from Kopitar, Brown and Stoll — “veterans” who underperformed and should/will bounce back.
So I’m going to say it’s somewhere between possible and likely that the Kings will hit 245 this year. 2.99 GPG. Let’s just call it 246, for an even 3.00 GPG.
Los Angeles Kings – News: SIX QUESTIONS WITH BROWN – 07/14/2009
LAKings.com: What are you most looking forward to for next season?
Brown: The playoffs, plain and simple.
via Los Angeles Kings – News: SIX QUESTIONS WITH BROWN – 07/14/2009.
Kopitar: Playing Hockey Out Of Love For The Game, Not Money (interview pt. 2) – Los Angeles Kings Hockey Fan Forum
Q: Where do you see the Kings and yourself in 5 years? Contending for the title?
A: If I’m completely honest, I have to say I can see us contending for the title a bit sooner than that. We’ve been putting the team together for 3 years now according to the plans of our management, and now the pieces are together. This team will now grow together and I hope to play in the Stanley Cup finals and win a cup sooner than in five years.
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