Kings Players With Height Rendered as Font Size

New Post, in which, instead of earning money, I decide to crunch cap figures related to the preposterous Sedin twins to L.A. UFA rumor

Here’s why I don’t think the swedish twins in socal rumor makes any sense, especially not Deano sense.

Math.

The twins want $12MM/year. The Kings, after re-signing Johnson and Purcell, then adding $12MM for the Sedins, would be at at least $58MM. $59MM if Hickey makes the team. So we have to dump one big salary. There are exactly three candidates for dumping: Stoll, Frolov and Johnson. (Handzus has a NTC but maybe he could be shipped to a contender and he would be happy.) I would get rid of Stoll, because if you don’t, there is no place for Schenn to play EVER, since both [whichever Sedin is a center] and Kopitar would be your 1 and 2 centers for the next decade. So let’s say we dump Stoll for picks. Now we’re under the cap. And this is your Los Angeles Kings for 2009-2010:

Twin1/Twin2/Moller

Frolov/Kopitar/Williams

Purcell/Lewis/Brown

Cliche/Handzus/Simmonds

Johnson/Doughty

Quincey/Greene

Hickey/SOD

Drewiske

Quick

Ersberg

Not a bad line-up. However:

Now it’s next summer, June 30, 2010. The cap IS coming down. To around $50MM, maybe lower. The Kings are at $50MM now, but they have to re-sign Frolov, Cliche, Lewis, Quincey and Quick. Conservatively, that’s 5, 1, 1.5, 3 and 3MM. $13.5MM. Add that to $50MM, you’ve got $63.5MM. You’re $13.5MM over the cap.

Oops.

Now, Lombardi will have seen this coming a mile away. And he will conclude, in order not to be completely f***ed in 2010-2011, he’s going to have to have shed a bunch of salary during 2009-2010. Three players with decent salaries. Frolov is obvious, Johnson also…and…I don’t know…who’s left? We already dealt Stoll in the summer of ’09, and Williams and Handzus are ear-marked for jettisoning the following season (see The Doughty/Moller/Simmonds Nightmare of 2011, below). So I guess you dump Greene and hope that Teubert is ready to take his place.

Now you’re back under the cap, and your 2010-2011 Los Angeles Kings look like this:

Twin 1/Twin 2/Moller

Purcell/Kopitar/Williams

Clifford/Schenn/Brown

Lewis/Handzus/Simmonds

Drewiske/Doughty

Quincey/Voynov

Hickey/Teubert

Quick

Bernier

Also not bad. However:

Now it’s summer of 2011, two years from now. Moller, Simmonds and Doughty are RFA. That’s another $9-10MM in cap space you need to create, at least. And if the twins don’t stink, Moller may be a thirty (or, worse, forty) goal scorer by then. But let’s be conservative. Call it $10MM of space we need to clear. 75% of that we clear by because Handzus and Williams are off the books as UFAs (probably traded for picks at the previous deadline, unless of course we’re on a cup run). So figure you lose those guys and re-sign the three kids and your cap goes up another three million.

And someone has to go. Who? Do you let one of Moller or Simmonds walk? I would cry. Purcell is affordable, since he will still be playing on the contract he gets this summer (unless he only signs for two years, in which case, he’ll be a UFA I think). Maybe you don’t re-sign Purcell (or trade, whatever) and trade another defenseman. Who’s expendable? Who knows. Say it’s Drewiske.

So, here’s your 2011-2012 Los Angeles Kings:

Twin 1/Twin 2/Moller

Wudrick/Kopitar/Loktionov

Clifford/Schenn/Brown

someone cheap/Lewis/Simmonds

Quincey/Doughty

Hickey/Teubert

Voynov/someone cheap

Quick

Bernier

Could be a great team. And all you have to do is:

Deal Stoll now. Deal Frolov, Johnson and Greene before next season’s trade deadline. Deal Handzus, Williams, Purcell and Drewiske before the deadline of 2010-11. Or else just let them all walk (well, not Drewiske, who will probably still be under contract).

Oh, and all these trades will be for picks and prospects, because we won’t be able to take any salary back. So it will literally be trade after trade after trade of “why did we just give up [core player x] for a measly 2nd round pick?”

Answer: because we’ll be over a barrel.

[Hilarious bonus irony: it used to be that teams in playoff contention picked up a few pieces to gear up for the playoffs, and teams that were out of contention dumped salary; NOW, we'll be dumping some of our best players exactly at the time we're gearing up for the playoffs. We'll be fighting for home ice advantage in the post-season, and we'll be SELLERS? How much fun will that be?]

And when Schenn, Loktionov, Voynov, Hickey and Teubert come up for contracts, and the Sedins are literally unmovable because of their huge contracts with 7 years left on them, you have absolutely no choice but to deal…

…Kopitar and Brown.

This is why I think it’s a bad idea.

Buffalo News: Sabres sign Myers to three-year pact

It’s fair to say the Buffalo Sabres liked Tyler Myers from the start. They traded up to select him 12th overall in last June’s NHL entry draft, and General Manager Darcy Regier said he was happy to pay the price to get him.

On Monday, the Sabres proved their admiration again. They signed their top prospect to a three-year contract potentially worth more than $2.6 million.

The big question for the 6- foot-8 defenseman is when will he start making that money.

The 19-year-old has one year of junior hockey eligibility remaining. That leaves the Sabres with two options for next season: Play him in Buffalo or send him back to the Kelowna Rockets. Players with junior eligibility cannot play in the minor leagues.

The Sabres will have nine games to decide whether Myers is ready to patrol their blue line. Once Myers plays in 10 games, his contract cannot slide. If they decide he needs more junior seasoning before the 10th game, the contract wouldn’t start until the following season.

The way Myers is playing, it would be a surprise to see him anywhere but Buffalo this fall. Myers was named the Most Valuable Player of the Western Hockey League over the weekend after leading Kelowna to the WHL title and a spot in the Memorial Cup. Myers had 20 points (five goals, 15 assists) in his 22 playoff games and a plus- 13 rating.

The Houston native and Calgary resident was just as good in the 58-game regular season, recording 42 points (nine goals, 33 assists), 105 penalty minutes and a plus-31. The smooth skater was also in the spotlight at the world junior championships, helping lead Canada to the gold medal.

“Tyler is having an outstanding year,” Regier, who was unavailable for further comment, said in a statement. “He is a big, strong player who has excellent hockey skills for a 19-year old player. We’re glad to have him signed and look forward to his continued development both on and off the ice.”

The Sabres expect Myers, who weighs 215 pounds, to add more bulk to his substantial frame as he matures. He’ll have the money for good food. Myers signed for the rookie maximum of $875,000 per season.

via Sabres sign Myers to three-year pact : Sports : The Buffalo News.

I have to remember when I have more time to look into the way entry-level contracts and bonuses are structured. I looked it up de Doughty last summer, and promptly forgot it all. Something limits the amount of bonus possible. Doughty’s bonus put his potential salary above $3MM. Myers’ — as reported here — would put him at $2.6MM. Hickey’s (as quoted on Inside the Kings) is in the $1.5MM range (from memory). If the bonus limits are tied to draft selection, wouldn’t Hickey’s bonus (selected 4th) be higher than Myers’ (selected 12th)? 

Meanwhile, I’m not going to say out loud that I’m afraid Myers would have been a better pick than Teubert. Just because Myers had a tremendous year and Teubert had a spotty one? Yes, that would be the reasoning, were I to say such a thing, which I am not.

“Is this team really that promising?”

Ersberg (commenter on “Inside the Kings,” not the actual Ersberg) asked the following great questions in the Inside the Kings comments section:

“Does anyone else think the Kings seem to not have the type of offense that some teams have that can be a threat on almost any possession? They just seem anemic on O, [yet] they have a lot of the same guys as they did last season [who] scored a lot. [...] With [...] regard to our prospects [...] how are [they] going to get it done next season?

 [...] Is it, in fact, Terry’s system? Are we missing key guys? Are some of our ‘older, younger’ guys not what we thought they’d be (Kop, Fro, Brown, etc.)? Was it a fluke last season when guys like Brown scored 30+? Is it the guys below our top scorers [...] that are the issue[...]? [...] [D]o you feel our guys have a higher “ceilings” than what we’re seeing? Do you see guys like Johnson, Greene, Quincey getting better? What about Purcell, who’s 24(?) [...]? It seems like they’re trying real, real hard, but they end up coming short, which is why I believe they need some more changes and additional players.

Who do we add? Who goes? Who do you think will actually want to come here? [...] Is this team really that promising? Columbus [...] has had a lot of changes, some very young additions, and they are sitting in a playoff spot. I see the Kings being very much the same.

[...] In addition [...], ask yourselves this: when was the last team any sports team (4 major sports) went cheap, and won a championship? I’m thinking it was the Angels in 2002. It seems to me we’re a ‘cheap’ team.”

The problem on offense: certainly, part of the drop in production is due to TM’s defensive system. There’s really no way around that. You’re always going to sacrifice some offense when you play a tighter defense. As it has turned out, the Kings GF and GA have both dropped about 0.3 goals/game. So it’s basically a wash. However, notice that reducing both goals-for and goal-against by the same amount has resulted in better results (assuming the Kings don’t proceed to lose the next nine games). 

Looking at the offensive numbers: this season, the Kings have averaged 2.0 goals per 60 minutes of 5-on-5. Last season, they averaged 2.3. That’s all of our loss of production. Five-on-four, the Kings are up to 6.6 goals/60min from 5.8 the previous year. Five-on-three, we’re at 22.9, up from 21.0 [just to clarify, 22.9 goals/60, 5-on-3, means that if they were to play an entire game 5-on-3, they would score on average 22.9 goals]. In short, this season, the special teams are slightly better, and 5-on-5 we’re much worse. Of course, it’s 5-on-5 where the defensive system is in full force, so that’s another reason it must shoulder (at least) some of the blame. 

Actually, those numbers alone ought to be enough for those who are predisposed to blame TM to put the last few nails in the coffin. My purely statistical response to that would be, per above, to point out that a commensurate drop in offense and goals-against yields better results, in terms of wins/points. 

I would also say, in TM’s defense, that if the Kings had stuck to their defensive system even more than they have, they would be looking at the playoffs right now. Before the season started, I pointed out in the ItK comment section that if the Kings were able to reduce their goals-against from last season’s 3.24 (from memory, I could be off a few 1/100ths) to around 2.75 they would make the playoffs, 2.75 being the usual threshold for a playoff team. They were on track to do this for about half the season, I think, but they got sloppy. In this context, TM’s benching of Frolov makes a lot of sense. He (TM) knows that it’s the defense that’s going to make the difference. 

Underline: even with the drop-off of production, the Kings would have made the playoffs this year had they stuck to the system. That’s okay. It’s not a knock against the players that they didn’t just magically see the light. You have to learn by experience.

Re “are we missing key guys?” — DL made a revealing comment in an interview a few weeks ago that [paraphrase] Kopitar was basically a second-line center who has the potential to be a first-line center. The expectation has to be that he grows into the role of #1 center, otherwise frankly he’s not earning his contract. DL was just being honest (maybe too honest, since it opens him up to a lot of criticism — why pay that much for a #2 center, etc.). But I did get the feeling this season that Kopitar looked like the understudy suddenly forced to play the lead part. And he’s done okay, especially of late. But watching him in the #1 center role makes me (and I think a lot of other people) long for a game-changer. 

As a mental exercise, I sometimes try to imagine where our various guys would fit in on a powerhouse, elite team, say, Detroit. Kopitar would be a great #2 center on the wings. Brown, a great third line winger. Frolov, 2nd liner, but maybe still in the doghouse for his lapses (see Fedorov). Stoll, 3rd line center. Handzus, third line center. Williams, 2nd line, maybe third. Calder, scratch. Armstrong, waived. Ivanans, Westgarth, waived. Zeiler, waived (they waived Ellis, who is a better Zeiler). What this exercise reminds me is, on the Kings roadmap to Elite-ness-itude (-ity), we’ve already got ourselves a great third line, a great second line, and no first line.

And, boy, doesn’t it feel like that’s just what we have? 

I’m not saying Kopitar won’t grow into the #1 center role.  I think he will, actually. He’s still a kid. But, as far as “missing key guys” goes, I would say, yes, definitely, it’s time to get a true, top-line sniper, a finisher, a star. You do that, and you take the pressure off Kopitar, he won’t see the other team’s best shift after shift, and he will have room to grow. 

re “prospects, how are they going to get it done?” — Simmonds, Doughty and Quincey are unqualified successes this year. Purcell, Moller, Quick and Harrold are successes with asterisks attached. In Purcell’s case, it took him most of the season to get it together. Moller started strong and then had a run of bad luck (followed by TM’s odd insistence on keeping him out of the line-up because he wasn’t strong enough, as if this wasn’t also true at the beginning of the season when he was leading the Kings in PP goals, etc. — file that under “don’t get me started”). Quick was an instant star and then lost some of his star-power, but has still been huge. Harrold gets an asterisk because he’s a “veteran” prospect and he has the curse of doing a lot of things well, but nothing spectacularly well. He’s extremely useful, but easy to pencil out. Of those guys, can we expect them to get better? Absolutely. Simmonds and Moller, for one thing, are kids. They’re physically immature. They’re going to get bigger and stronger. Doughty, we forget that in addition to everything we’ve seen from him, he likes to check, and has been known (as we’ve seen in glimpses of him this season) to take over games. When he’s mature, he’s going to be that much more dominant. Johnson, whom you mentioned, has to play smarter, but that’s not unusual for young defensemen, and JJ is following a much more traditional d prospect path. We’re spoiled by Doughty stepping right in and playing a dominant role. That happens, well, almost never. 

Re the Kings being a “cheap” team — It’s hard to argue against that when the Kings have the lowest cap figure in the league. However, I must. First of all, next season, with Kopitar’s and Greene’s contracts kicking in, the Kings will not have the lowest cap figure anymore: they’ll be somewhere around $47-48MM, i.e. more or less halfway between the ceiling and the floor. If they sign a big UFA, they’ll be much, much closer to the ceiling. There’s a good chance the ceiling will come down season after next, and some have said as low as $52MM. This would mean many teams would have to shed salary in order to comply. I don’t think DL is cheap. I think he’s smart. There is simply no way in the post-lock-out NHL to have a team that has several superstar contracts (or even more than two — three is pushing it). You must have a balance between big names, medium names, role players and prospects. Look at Detroit: Holland cannot sign both Hossa and Franzen, unless he’s willing to forego team depth, which he clearly doesn’t want to do. The Kings could easily be in that position in two years, and, p.s. would have been for certain if they had given Cammellari the $6MM he asked for, given POS the $4MM or whatever and kept him, both of which would have meant giving Kopitar more, giving JJ more this summer, etc., etc.. 

The distance between floor and ceiling is quite small. DL kept near the floor this year. Signed Kopitar and is halfway to the ceiling. This summer, he could go all the way to the ceiling with one signing. 

Re “who would want to sign here?” — Let’s take Hossa as an example. Hossa wants to stay in Detroit. Detroit wants him. He’s willing to take less, but how much less is not known, and the talks have stalled. If Hossa doesn’t sign with Detroit, he’s going to seek more money elsewhere. The question is, (1) who wants him? (2) who’s attractive to him? and (3) who can afford him? 

Answer to #1: more or less, everybody. 

Answer to #2: first choice, a contender. Who are the contenders? San Jose, Washington, Calgary, Chicago, Boston, Vancouver, New Jersey, Pittsburgh. But see answer #3…

Answer to #3: none of the contenders have cap space to sign him. Will someone sign him and then put themselves in the Brian Burke position of having to trade assets when the entire world knows they are over a barrel? Probably, they won’t. Will someone go on a draft day fire sale to shed salary in order to make room for Hossa? Dangerous to do that, since you might not get Hossa, and then where will you be? 

Who has the cap space? A bunch of losers, that’s who. I’m including the Kings in that. A bunch of teams that aren’t going to look too attractive to Hossa. Among which, he may have to pick the team with the brightest future. The loser with the brightest future. Among said losers, there is no one regarded to have a brighter future than the Kings. 

That’s our hope. We have the cap space, we are the future, and we need to be successful now. Now is the time. 

That’s not a horrible pitch. Will it be good enough? Who knows.

re “next season…how are they going to get it done?” — For one thing, it will be a slightly different “they.” I believe DL will push very hard to bring a big UFA forward in. He needs to. As many have pointed out, not getting into the playoffs a year from now will be a failure placed solely at DL’s feet. The pressure is mounting and the team is going to have to produce next season. He’s going to try very hard to bring in some big-bucks snipery finish for the first line. Will he succeed? I am going to put my money on … probably. 

So, first piece of the puzzle is one big tasty UFA. Second piece of the puzzle is, no Calder, no Preissing, no Gauthier, no Armstrong, probably no Zeiler, maybe no Ivanans. Third piece, bigger, stronger, older Doughty, Moller and Simmonds. Purcell coming into his own. Lewis hopefully on the team full time on the third line. Hickey, Teubert, Voynov…one of them will make it, maybe even two. Jon Bernier…I still hold out hope that he will top them all in camp this September. 

The other issue, I think, is finding a workable fourth line that has an actual theme and purpose and use, as opposed to it just being a catch-all for players who are dressed but benched in the third period. I liked the old Donnelly/Millen third line idea, small/speedy tertiary scoring. I think there’s a version of the Kings with a Moller/Loktionov/Azevedo/Richardson type third line configuration, that would be terrifying and beautiful to behold. That would free up the fourth line to be a Handzus/Lewis/Simmonds/Brown/Wudrick type ordeal. Yes, okay, Brown on the fourth line. But I’m talking about rolling four lines all game, with much more balanced ice-time. Think Detroit. And let all the “unhealthy Detroit fixation” gossip begin.

Via Open Ice Hitter: Kids might be coming…..

Colton Teubert  Los Angeles Kings  /  Regina Pats  – Likely destined for the Manchester Monarchs due to the depth on the Kings blueline, Teubert could be given an opportunity due to the fact that he is a more physical type d-man than the other defenders, with the exception of Jack Johnson.

 Thomas Hickey  Los Angeles Kings  /  Seattle Thunderbirds  – If the T-Birds fall in the Dub, look for Hickey to log some minutes on the back end in LA. Hickey is a smallish defender with little flash, but he is very steady and well rounded, and if things turn out well for him, he will be Mr Consistency on the Kings second pairing for years to come

via Kids might be coming…...

Personally, I would be shocked if either one dressed for the Kings this year (I was hoping for Voynov or Azevedo or somebody like that), but it would be great.

Top NHL pick Teubert already a hit – San Bernardino County Sun

As the Reign’s special military-themed jerseys earned a total of $52,000 during a postgame charity auction, the bid on Teubert’s jersey set a team record. Not a bad omen for a 19-year-old who had just appeared in his first game at Citizens Business Bank Arena.

“Great fans. The atmosphere in the building’s awesome,” Teubert said. “I love it.”

The feeling clearly is mutual.

The next night against Las Vegas, Teubert delivered several bone-crunching hits, one of which led directly to his first professional assist in the third period of a playoff-clinching 3-1 victory.

via Top NHL pick Teubert already a hit – San Bernardino County Sun.

Colten Teubert Adds Greater Maturity And Composure To His Game « Frozen Royalty

Speaking of keeping it simple, Teubert showed composure and maturity on the ice against Phoenix, a stark contrast from the raw, undisciplined defenseman who showed up for the Kings training camp back in September.

Indeed, that version of Colten Teubert ran around all over the ice, trying to hit anything and everything that moved, believing that was the way to make a big impression.

“I’ve got to stay simple,” he said. “Running around will get me in situations I don’t want to be in. I’m just trying to focus on being on the defensive side [of the puck] and when I do have a chance to make a hit I’ll make it count.”

“I’m more experienced, I have less pressure on myself with where I was drafted,” he elaborated. “I was trying to do too much [at the Kings training camp last September]. I’m just more composed and prepared.”

Teubert’s defensive partner with the Reign has also taken notice of his play.

“He’s a young kid but he’s playing well,” said Reign defenseman Chad Starling, who is in his eighth season in the ECHL. “He plays his position well. He talks a lot out there. He’s mature. He’s 19, but he plays like he’s a lot older.”

“He’s solid,” added Starling. “We haven’t even practiced together but I think we jelled a little bit last night [at Las Vegas]. Same thing tonight. We play well together. We just have to keep it simple. We’re not going to be rushing the puck up the ice, skating around five guys. We’re going to make the easy plays and smart passes, worry about our own zone, finish our hits, try to shut down the other team’s top line and go from there.”

But already, perhaps expectations for Teubert and his future are too high.

“He’s a great, hard-nosed defenseman,” said Rowat. “He’s got a really hard shot from the point. You could compare him to Chris Pronger. He’s a great teammate, a great leader. He’s going to be a great player.”

Anyone who has followed the NHL in recent years knows that Chris Pronger has been one of the top ten defensemen in the league for several years. He plays a rough, hard-hitting game, has a 16-inch deck gun for a point shot, is solid defensively and plays in all situations—even strength, power play and penalty-kill.

Comparing Teubert to Pronger is probably not very accurate. Just don’t try telling that to Rowat.

“I think he can live up to expectations,” Rowat said with confidence.

via Colten Teubert Adds Greater Maturity And Composure To His Game « Frozen Royalty.