UPDATED Who’s Vulnerable? (a.k.a. Cap Idiots Chart #2)
[UPDATE TO THE UPDATE: if you navigated here from a link not on this site, go instead to the corrected, updated chart here]
Just a few quick observations before sleep. Since last time, the Kings and Colorado were big movers. The Kings dropped into the gray zone. Colorado went from bad to gray. With the Kings dropping down, the number of buyers is reduced by one.
Meanwhile, in the orange and red zones, everyone’s making their situations worse by varying degrees. Well, not everyone; Washington and Pittsburgh are standing pat. San Jose has shrunk its wiggle room down to unworkable levels. And Chicago has joined Philly in the joyous red zone.
For the hell of it, I granted the Rangers honorary orange status, because any team that must average $1.3MM per player and has THIRTEEN players left to sign, is screwed even though it’s not Chicago or Philly screwed yet. They’ll get there.
“CAP#” = current cap hit
“SGND” = players signed
“C-Sp” = Cap space
“cush” = cap space w/ 10% cushion
“perP” = cap space per player left to sign
“LTS” = number of players left to sign to get to a 24 roster.
And now the Hawks are a million over the cap with four guys left to sign.
That’s all I wanted to say.
cut-and-paste of my own comment from Inside the Kings, just so I don’t forget I said it and because it’s so hard to find anything in the Inside the Kings archives
The season after next will be interesting cap-wise, as [commenter "src3" on the Inside the Kings "board" said] said. Not just because of Frolov being a UFA and the cap coming down a bit, but also because both Quincey and Quick will be RFA. Next year, Fro’s hit is 2.9, Quick’s .8, Quincey’s .6, and it would be reasonable to expect those three to be at cap hits of 5, 2.5 and 2.5, conservatively, with their new contracts. That’s AT LEAST $6MM more cap room we’re going to need, not next year, but the year after (which, after all, is really just next summer, one year from now — yikes).
Is DL factoring that into his thoughts about Frolov and whoever he’s going to bring in this year as a UFA (or via trade)? Absolutely. And clearly trading Frolov would make room for whatever will be necessary to do for the 2010 season. But, since DL has to think Frolov will be tradable at the deadline or even next summer, I don’t know that he’s really going to worry too much about that now. Actually, I think DL might make the calculation that putting Frolov and (to pick one of the UFA names) Hossa on the same line will drive Frolov’s numbers way up, thus driving his value up as well. In other words, it’s reasonable to assume that Frolov will be more valuable a year from now than he is now. And he’s pretty valuable now.
But let’s play the thought experiment:
Kings sign Hossa (or Havlat or Gaborik), re-sign Frolov, Purcell, Johnson and Boyle. Now, let’s skip the entire 09-10 season. It’s summer of ’10. Quick has had a great year, as have Quincey and Drewiske (all RFAs). They are resigned at 2.75, 2.5, 1.5. Frolov at 5. That’s a cap hit of $11.75. Let’s just say that’s a cap increase of $7MM. SOD retires.
Frolov/Kopitar/Hossa
Williams/Stoll/Brown
xx/Handzus/xx
xx/xx/xx
The xx’s are the smaller contracts (Moller, Boyle, Purcell, Simmonds, whoever we draft this year, etc.).
Here’s what I think the actual strategy will be (and, in fact, ought to be). Sign the big UFA, resign Frolov, go up to within a couple million of the cap ceiling. Clearly, next summer, something will have to give. Somebody’s big contract is going to have to go, maybe two somebodies. But does DL want to get rid of Frolov NOW because he’s got to pay Handzus for two more years? I don’t think so. Handzus, actually, I think is the most vulnerable of all the big salaries. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him traded at the deadline next year. I think Handzus was the team MVP last season by numerous measures; but he’s overpaid and he’s a third-line center ideally. Also, he’s a defensive specialist and will be attractive to someone at the deadline, as he supposedly was this year.
Trading Handzus would be, of course, entirely dependent on other centers stepping it up and proving themselves to be ready. Namely, Moller, Boyle, Lewis, Loktionov, Azevedo, someone we might be drafting in a month…
Meanwhile, there are other candidates to be moved. Let’s say, for example, that we sign Hossa and keep Frolov, and next year we have our first line (with Kopitar) the likes of which we haven’t seen since Palffy/Alison/Deadmarsh. Now, what happens if Brown has a crappy year next season? He might be the one to get dealt. Let’s just say, Handzus is a rock and the first line is clicking… DL is going to be looking very closely at that group of Williams, Stoll and Brown. One of them would literally HAVE to be traded. Same thing is true on defense. If the prospects don’t pan out next season and don’t look like they’re progressing, veterans like Greene are safe. But if the prospects pick it up, Greene is another contract that can be dealt.
I think DL will play this out very deliberately and carefully. And you [SRC3] are certainly correct that if DL signs a UFA this July, next summer something’s gotta give. I just don’t think that means Frolov will be leaving. One of Frolov, Kopitar, Brown, Stoll, Handzus, Williams or Greene — definitely. In 2010. Not now.
Think of it the other way. You aren’t going to deny yourselves Hossa and Frolov this season because you might have to trade Handzus or Greene next season, right?
Incompetent B.S. from the Edmonton Journal on the Topic of Hossa, Franzen and the cap
It’s no surprise that Johan Franzen is getting an 11-year, $43-million contract that runs until 2021 to spread out the cap hit ($1 million the final two, years when he’ll be 38 and 39 years old).
Uh no, the cap hit is the same every year, dumba**. [UPDATE: oh, I see. The parenthetical refers not to that which precedes it, but to the contracted payment; at least, I think that's what he thinks he's saying.]
Same story with Henrik Zetterberg ($6.1 million cap hit over 12 years). They may eventually close that loophole, but Wings’ GM Ken Holland is simply playing by the rules now. And Franzen’s average cap hit of $3.95 million is actually close to what a veteran agent thought he’d get last week. Franzen will get $36 million in the first seven years, starting at $5.5 million next season — his salary more in tune with his tremendous goal-scoring ability. “Let’s see now, we have an 11-year contract and a 12-year contract, so I guess Marian will take 10 or 13 years,” laughed Hossa’s agent Ritch Winter, who talked to Holland about numbers Saturday, although Holland won’t be able to sign Hossa until June because of their cap situation.
Actually, that makes no sense at all.
Hossa is going nowhere. His cap hit will be in the $6-million range. “I will tell you this: despite what people are saying, the salary cap in Detroit will definitely be no impediment to Marian signing there,” said Winter.
Right. Do the math: in order for the Wings to sign Hossa with a cap hit of $6MM, they will have to dump at least two huge salaries. Who are they going to get rid of? Filppula and Stuart? Kronwall and Stuart? Take your pick. But you can’t say there will be “no impediment.”
UPDATE: Just to be sure, I added the numbers up again. A Hossa cap hit of $6MM would leave the Wings with a cap number of $59.3 with four players left to sign. That means, assuming entry level salaries, that they would have a cap hit of around $62MM. Assume the cap will go up nominally, a couple million. The Wings must shed at least one huge salary and probably two, in addition to losing Samuelsson and Hudler. So call it Samuelsson, Hudler, Stuart and maybe someone else. I don’t believe it. And still, it’s not NO impediment.
via More Hockey World .
SI.com, Jim Kelley: NHL salary cap forces Calgary Flames to play shorthanded
The Flames have been playing shorthanded for several games, including a crucial loss earlier this week to the surging Canucks that may have decided first place in the Northwest Division. Now, there are a number of reasons why that can happen. Penalties incurred during a contest is the one that comes most readily to mind, but there can be injuries or a called-up player not getting to the arena on time.
The Flames are shorthanded simply because they are out of money.
Well, not technically out of money, but hard against the $56.7 million salary cap. They have played their last three outings with 17 players, three short of the allowable 20, because several high-profile and well-paid individuals are on their injury list. The problem is that there’s no room under the cap to add replacements.
Placing blame for that is tricky. Pundits who declared Calgary all-in winners after their trade deadline acquisitions of Olli Jokinen and Jordan Leopold not only missed badly in their prediction that the Flames would be greatly improved, they failed to point out that GM Darryl Sutter didn’t send nearly enough money out the door to balance the new cash obligations that were coming in. So when a slew of players including top-four defensemen Cory Sarich and Robyn Regehr were out of the lineup with nine-regular season games remaining, Sutter had a Hank Paulson-like problem on his hands.
At that late a point in the season, NHL rules forbid teams to put players on the long-term injured list (otherwise a handy escape valve for cap relief because their salaries do not count against it). That meant Sarich and Regehr became toxic assets. The Flames had at least five other injured players on the books, so they were forced to play a game that would likely decide the division crown (and third place in the Western Conference) without a full roster. That will likely be the case later this week when they close their season with a home-and-home series vs. Edmonton.
Sutter has argued that this is not a cap issue, but an injury problem. It’s a valid point. Teams have played under the roster limit in the past, most often because of injuries. Yet the Flames are open to the complaint that by mismanaging their cap and playing short they can more easily surrender points they might have won — points that could impact a team that is trying to get into or stay in playoff contention. And some folks won’t be surprised if the Flames use their current predicament to lobby later for getting that nine-games rule removed.
via NHL salary cap forces Calgary Flames to play shorthanded – Jim Kelley – SI.com.
See also: Tom Benjamin: Calgary out of $$ and Kukla’s Corner WTF Calgary!
Kukla’s Korner: WTF? Calgary can’t afford to dress a full roster?
One story that has not been adequately reported is the fact that the Calgary Flames, a team in a tight race for the Northwest Division, has been playing games with less than a full roster. The problem is that they have so little salary cap room that they have not been able to afford to dress a full lineup. Three defencemen, Robyn Regehr, Adrian Aucoin and Cory Sarich all suffered injuries, but none are serious enough to go on the long-term disabled list (especially given the fact this would keep them out of the beginning games of the Stanley Cup playoffs). The Calgary Flames have played their last three games with less than a full roster. They played last Friday’s game against Minnesota with only 16 skaters (instead of 18) and predictably lost 4-0. They played Monday and Tuesday’s games, against Los Angeles and Vancouver respectively, with 17 skaters. Amazingly they defeated Los Angeles 4-1, but lost to Vancouver also by a 4-1 score.
Dustin Boyd currently in the minors for salary cap reasons. Boyd has been a solid forward for the Flames with 22 points so far this season. He is somebody who can be sent to the minors without worrying about waivers, so he is their salary cap sacrifice. He is the final player the Flames would like to have in their line-up to dress a full roster.
Calgary has other players who are not playing with the team for salary cap reasons. Anders Eriksson has been in the minors all season. Rhett Warrener has been on the long term disabled list all season and Wayne Primeau has been there since December. They managed to ship Marcus Nilson off to the KHL to play with Yaroslavl Lokomotiv to get his contract off their books. Despite all these moves, Calgary still does not have salary cap space to dress a full roster. GM Darryl Sutter should take a lot of blame for that. His team is in a tight race for their division lead and due to his mistakes, they cannot even dress a full roster.
Amazingly, the mainstream media has been silent about this. There is no story on tsn.ca about this. The NHL is doing its best to hide the story. The only mainstream media story on the issue that I can find is from the Globe and Mail. As a result, this story has not received the attention it deserves from the blogosphere (although Tom Benjamin and Five Hole Fanaticsdo give it a go).
Isn’t the story of a team fighting for the division lead but forced to do so with less than a full roster important? Is the fact the NHL is getting less than a best effort from the Calgary Flames in this important time due to some arbitrary salary rules an embarrassment that they want to cover up? Calgary has not dressed a full roster in some important games and very few people have even noticed.
KuklasKorner : The Puck Stops Here : Calgary’s Salary Cap Management .
Contract talks between Red Wings and Marian Hossa, Johan Franzen on hold
Contract talks between the Detroit Red Wings and free-agent forwards Marian Hossa and Johan Franzen appear to be at a standstill, as neither side is budging.
General manager Ken Holland is hoping to sign one before the end of the regular season. If he has no deal in place by the first week of April, he will postpone talks until after the playoffs.
“I’ll obviously stay in touch,” Holland said. “I understand where they’re at and they understand where I’m at. We’re talking.
“They both have indicated their first choice is to stay. I can address it in June if I have to. They know the (team’s other) contract commitments.”
Holland met with Hossa’s agent, Ritch Winter, over the weekend. Hossa signed a one-year, $7.45 million deal last July but realizes he must take less (perhaps in the neighborhood of $6 million per season) to stay.
“If we’re not able to find a way, you know what, we had a great player come here for one year,” Holland said.
Franzen’s price tag is expected to be in the $4 million-a-year range.
While Holland said there is a chance he can sign both, he knows he would have to unload a few other players in the process.
“The decision we got to make is, do we want to be top-heavy and not have any depth?” Holland said. “That’s why I’m not rushing into any (moves).”
Edmonton Journal: Hossa? No, sir!
There was never any firm dollar offer on the table, though the Oil’s bidding apparently started at $9 million a year, and could perhaps have gone as high as $100 million over a suitable long, long term.
When Hossa first heard of the Oil’s interest, he had little interest himself, as the Oil haven’t exactly been a powerhouse in recent years, and after his stay in mediocre Atlanta, Hossa had no interest in being the big dog on mediocre team, even if it cost him millions of dollars over the term of his contract.
Katz’s excellent skills of persuasion apparently made Hossa think twice and even thrice about Edmonton, but still he chose elsewhere. He had just finished a happy run to the Stanley Cup finals and wanted more, so he chose the best place for future runs, Detroit.
It’s instructive that Hossa chose Detroit over Pittsburgh, Hossa’s team at the time, and a team loaded with massively talented players in Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin and a few other hot shots.
My guess is that Hossa looked hard at two numbers before making his choice: Pittsburgh, $17.4 million and Detroit, $12.7 million. Those numbers represent the combined totals both teams will pay their superstar forwards, who are all on long-term deals now, with Crosby and Malkin both earning $8.7 million a year in Pittsburgh, and Pavel Datsyuk $6.7 million a year and Henrik Zetterberg $6 million a year in Detroit.
Essentially, this gives the Red Wings almost $5 million a year extra in cap space to sign players. It also gives Detroit a huge competitive advantage when it comes to competing for the Stanley Cup.
via Hossa? No sir! – Cult of Hockey .
And this would be why the Kings can’t afford to overpay players like Cammelleri, POS or Frolov, and why Brown’s deal (especially) is so important. Lombardi has to know — because he has all the numbers — that over-paying for one guy means over-paying for everyone when the time comes.
Of course, I don’t think anyone will be willing to pay Hossa $8-10 million this summer, with the threat of the cap coming down. Which makes it all the more likely he will stay in Detroit.
In the soon to be pervasive debate about whether the Kings, now basically out of the playoffs, should tank it in order to win the Tavares Cup, or continue to try to win meaningless games, I would argue that the only way a player like Hossa would ever consider signing with the Kings is if DL could make the argument that the Kings are The Team of the Future. That argument will be easier to make if the Kings finish strong, with — say — 85 points.
NHL Rumors – Monday, March 23, 2009.
“SPECTOR’S NOTE: The Wings currently have about $9 million in available cap space and St. James suggests they’ll try to dump some lower-end salary this summer. The problem is Wings GM Ken Holland hopes to re-sign both Hossa and Johan Franzen. Even if he can somehow pull this off for this summer and re-signs both without seriously cutting into his roster depth and cap space he’s got to be careful about handcuffing himself for the 2010-11 season, as the cap for that season could drop to as low as $52 million [emphasis mine].”
Ken Holland on Hossa, Franzen
Holland:
“It’s about team building, it’s about our philosophy. We can keep Franzen and Hossa, but then we’ll have to let a whole lot of other players go. I don’t know if that’s the answer to being competitive. But if I can get a number that I think allows us to have one extra player, you start to think more and more about doing something. Right now, I’m not really close to where I’d like to get to with either side.”
Ken Holland seeks price for Marian Hossa | Freep.com | Detroit Free Press.
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