New Post, in which, instead of earning money, I decide to crunch cap figures related to the preposterous Sedin twins to L.A. UFA rumor
Here’s why I don’t think the swedish twins in socal rumor makes any sense, especially not Deano sense.
Math.
The twins want $12MM/year. The Kings, after re-signing Johnson and Purcell, then adding $12MM for the Sedins, would be at at least $58MM. $59MM if Hickey makes the team. So we have to dump one big salary. There are exactly three candidates for dumping: Stoll, Frolov and Johnson. (Handzus has a NTC but maybe he could be shipped to a contender and he would be happy.) I would get rid of Stoll, because if you don’t, there is no place for Schenn to play EVER, since both [whichever Sedin is a center] and Kopitar would be your 1 and 2 centers for the next decade. So let’s say we dump Stoll for picks. Now we’re under the cap. And this is your Los Angeles Kings for 2009-2010:
Twin1/Twin2/Moller
Frolov/Kopitar/Williams
Purcell/Lewis/Brown
Cliche/Handzus/Simmonds
Johnson/Doughty
Quincey/Greene
Hickey/SOD
Drewiske
Quick
Ersberg
Not a bad line-up. However:
Now it’s next summer, June 30, 2010. The cap IS coming down. To around $50MM, maybe lower. The Kings are at $50MM now, but they have to re-sign Frolov, Cliche, Lewis, Quincey and Quick. Conservatively, that’s 5, 1, 1.5, 3 and 3MM. $13.5MM. Add that to $50MM, you’ve got $63.5MM. You’re $13.5MM over the cap.
Oops.
Now, Lombardi will have seen this coming a mile away. And he will conclude, in order not to be completely f***ed in 2010-2011, he’s going to have to have shed a bunch of salary during 2009-2010. Three players with decent salaries. Frolov is obvious, Johnson also…and…I don’t know…who’s left? We already dealt Stoll in the summer of ’09, and Williams and Handzus are ear-marked for jettisoning the following season (see The Doughty/Moller/Simmonds Nightmare of 2011, below). So I guess you dump Greene and hope that Teubert is ready to take his place.
Now you’re back under the cap, and your 2010-2011 Los Angeles Kings look like this:
Twin 1/Twin 2/Moller
Purcell/Kopitar/Williams
Clifford/Schenn/Brown
Lewis/Handzus/Simmonds
Drewiske/Doughty
Quincey/Voynov
Hickey/Teubert
Quick
Bernier
Also not bad. However:
Now it’s summer of 2011, two years from now. Moller, Simmonds and Doughty are RFA. That’s another $9-10MM in cap space you need to create, at least. And if the twins don’t stink, Moller may be a thirty (or, worse, forty) goal scorer by then. But let’s be conservative. Call it $10MM of space we need to clear. 75% of that we clear by because Handzus and Williams are off the books as UFAs (probably traded for picks at the previous deadline, unless of course we’re on a cup run). So figure you lose those guys and re-sign the three kids and your cap goes up another three million.
And someone has to go. Who? Do you let one of Moller or Simmonds walk? I would cry. Purcell is affordable, since he will still be playing on the contract he gets this summer (unless he only signs for two years, in which case, he’ll be a UFA I think). Maybe you don’t re-sign Purcell (or trade, whatever) and trade another defenseman. Who’s expendable? Who knows. Say it’s Drewiske.
So, here’s your 2011-2012 Los Angeles Kings:
Twin 1/Twin 2/Moller
Wudrick/Kopitar/Loktionov
Clifford/Schenn/Brown
someone cheap/Lewis/Simmonds
Quincey/Doughty
Hickey/Teubert
Voynov/someone cheap
Quick
Bernier
Could be a great team. And all you have to do is:
Deal Stoll now. Deal Frolov, Johnson and Greene before next season’s trade deadline. Deal Handzus, Williams, Purcell and Drewiske before the deadline of 2010-11. Or else just let them all walk (well, not Drewiske, who will probably still be under contract).
Oh, and all these trades will be for picks and prospects, because we won’t be able to take any salary back. So it will literally be trade after trade after trade of “why did we just give up [core player x] for a measly 2nd round pick?”
Answer: because we’ll be over a barrel.
[Hilarious bonus irony: it used to be that teams in playoff contention picked up a few pieces to gear up for the playoffs, and teams that were out of contention dumped salary; NOW, we'll be dumping some of our best players exactly at the time we're gearing up for the playoffs. We'll be fighting for home ice advantage in the post-season, and we'll be SELLERS? How much fun will that be?]
And when Schenn, Loktionov, Voynov, Hickey and Teubert come up for contracts, and the Sedins are literally unmovable because of their huge contracts with 7 years left on them, you have absolutely no choice but to deal…
…Kopitar and Brown.
This is why I think it’s a bad idea.
From (the great) Matthew Barry: I Loved All The Things That DIDN’T Happen!
1) Tavares – So Dreger and the Union Leader and almost everyone else on XM204 was saying Duchene was going first – THAT didn’t happen and it didn’t seem like there was ever any doubt it was Tavares.
Dreger – so plugged in, and yet…
2) Brian Burke’s failure to move up – yes, he good a great draft pick and that was a CLASSIC sound byte of him telling Bryan Murray “we’re taking your guy” – but what I loved even more was the look on his face when the Kings took Schenn.
What’s extra funny was that it was obvious even before I heard about the sound byte that this is exactly what he was doing. You don’t usually get a quote — much less an exact quote — and MUCH MUCH less a sound byte of an exact quote — of what would normally be a “photoshop a caption” moment. Also, I agree completely, the shot of Burke after Schenn was selected was like a Saturday Night Live parody.
3) As Ek mentioned, JayBo didn’t move – Vinny didn’t move – Jack Johnson and Alex Frolov are still Kings. Every time Bettman said “we have a trade” it was for draft picks. THAT’S HOW IT SHOULD BE – It was about the DRAFT and not trading players.
4) Flyers fans weren’t given a box of chocolates after being used, abused, and pounded like a slab of veal. FOUR first round picks???? FOUR for Pronger???? That’s just NUTS!!!!! The price just went UP, UP, UP on Heater and every other talented player. If you’re going to pay 4 1st rounders for a guy with 1 year left on his contract and will be on the other side of 35, what’s Heater and Gaborik and Hossa and all of the others worth?
I don’t think it’s going to inflate anything, for the simple reason that, in Heatley’s case, Murray is over a barrel, and the UFAs have to find someone with cap room, which is a rare commodity and getting rarer all the time. Also, to state the obvious, Philly is (probably) out of the UFA market.
Okay, okay, take it easy, I know Lupul was a complete salary dump and I’ll be so happy not to see Prongers stupid grin in the West anymore, but still, Sbisa and 2 first rounders is still a serious price to pay – Now, tell me, now that you ADDED a million dollars to payroll, who gets dumped next?
At least six million worth of somebody.
via HockeyBuzz.com – Matthew Barry – I Loved All The Things That DIDN’T Happen! .
Los Angeles Kings (LAKingsHockey) on Twitter
I am really excited. great day for our franchise – Luc #NHL
I hope so, but does he know something we don’t know, or is he just being optimistic? I guess he could be saying, “it’s a great day for our franchise because whether we get Kane, Schenn, Cowan or MPS those are all great players with great potential.” I just don’t think that’s what he’s saying. Of course, with nothing else to do for the next nine hours, I may be prone to reading tea leaves.
THN Draft Preview 2009
1. Tavares
2. Hedman
3. Duchene
4. Cowen
5. Kane
6. Schenn
7. Paajarvi-Svensson
8. Kadri
9. Schroeder
10. Rundblad
2 comments