When is Your Checking Line Not Your Checking Line?

I just noticed something fascinating in the Kings exotic stats numbers from the first four games. Actually, I noticed it after game three, but put off mentioning it because I thought maybe it was statistical white noise. I still think it might be. But I’m getting ahead of myself. Let me back up.

We all know which Kings line is the number one line. And we all know which line is the checking line. There has been much gnashing of teeth at the gall of Terry Murray to put our leading goal scorer on the third line, the checking line. (What, is he is insane? Etc.) I spent most of last year defending Frolov’s supposed defensive weaknesses by citing QUALCOMP stats which showed he drew the toughest defensive assignments of any Kings forward. And clearly when Murray reunited the Frolov/Handzus/Simmonds line for this season, we all knew it was more of the same.

Except it’s not. At least not so far.

I looked at the QUALCOMP numbers after the third game, and much to my surprise, who did I find at the top of the list, playing against the opponents’ highest rated forwards? Stoll/Brown/Purcell, that’s who.

And who was at the bottom of the list, getting the easiest opponents? Frolov/Handzus/Simmonds.

Could it be that Terry Murray has quietly switched his line-matching strategy, treating his publicly-labeled “checking line” like the number two offensive unit and his declared “#2″ line as the real checking line? The idea made me giggle at its shifty brilliance. But it also occurred to me that the numbers could be messed up in the following way: with such a small sample size, wasn’t it possible that the reason Purcell/Stoll/Brown were getting high QUALCOMP numbers was because they themselves (Pucell/Stoll/Brown) were underperforming, thus CAUSING their opponents to have higher ratings and artificially juicing their own QUALCOMP numbers due to their own suckiness? I decided to give it at least another game.

Looking at the numbers after last night’s game, Purcell/Stoll/Brown were still at the top of the forwards, with Frolov/Handzus/Simmonds creeping toward the middle of the pack and the Kopitar line edging toward the easiest opponents. This would of course corroborate the theory that the Stoll line has quietly become the checking line, while the other two lines are getting matched against the weaker opponents.

We’ll see how these numbers look when get farther along. It may still be statistical white noise. Meanwhile, I can enjoy the thought that this is really what Murray is doing; since, after all, I’ve always maintained that Brown is the ideal third-line winger despite the fact that we can never call him that; and we all know that Stoll is not really a top-six forward, while Frolov obviously is one, and Simmonds is playing more like one every day.

[POST GAME 5 UPDATE: Handzus and Frolov are still getting the weakest opponents, with Simmonds creeping up and the Brown line creeping down. The big change with game 5 is that the Kopitar line now has the highest QUALCOMP numbers, which makes sense to me since they are playing so well they're drawing the best the other team has to offer. Although the numbers after five games are not as persuasive as the numbers after three or four games, it's still remarkable that the Stoll line is drawing tougher assignments than the Handzus line. The comparison between Frolov of last year and Frolov of this year is especially striking, since he was the highest rated forward and now he's the lowest rated one -- in terms of the quality of opponent Murray is putting Fro out against. But like I said above, this is still very much "to be continued". The first five games could be an abberation and everything could soon level out.]

Roster I Wish Were Possible

Smyth/Kopitar/Williams

Purcell/Moller/Brown

Frolov/Handzus/Simmonds

Clune/Stoll/Westgarth

(Harrold, Lewis)

Johnson/Scuderi

Doughty/Greene

Hickey/SOD

(Drewiske)

Bernier

Quick

Or, as I like to think of it:

25/35/25

20/20/30

35/20/15

5/15/5

Matthew Barry – Will Jarret Stoll Be Ready To Start the Season?

From Matthew Barry:

In an interview with Team 1260 this afternoon, Kings centerman and faceoff specialist Stoll admitted he had arthritis in his knee, wrist and elbows (at the tender age of 27), to the point where he couldn’t move. He’s currently under medication and plans to be ready for the start of the season (didn’t we hear this about Adam Deadmarsh and Jason Allison a few years ago?).

Coming off of a major groin tear, if Stoll is not ready to take on the role of 2nd line center, it bumps up Handzus, leaving the checking line thin and the 4th line absent of a veteran/decent center. With Derek Armstrong not waiting around for the Kings to make up their minds about him taking a 2-way deal with his former coach, Lombardi will once again be hitting the phones looking for help.

via HockeyBuzz.com – Matthew Barry – Will Jarret Stoll Be Ready To Start the Season?.

So presumably Stoll is not going to be passing any trade-related physicals any time soon. And I would just have to assume he’s not going to be ready for the season and he’s not really going to contribute much of anything. Because, frankly, chronic debilitating arthritis is kind of a problem.

So, my first question is, do the Kings have the personnel to play up to everyone’s new expectations, without Stoll in the line-up? Secondly, is there any kind of silver lining if Stoll can’t play? Sometimes, as with POS’s non-hold-out this time last year, it creates an opportunity (i.e. Moller, Simmonds). Is that likely to happen this time? I know I’m getting ahead of myself a bit, but there’s no hockey on TV, so f you.

Smyth/Kopitar/Williams

Frolov/Moller/Brown

Purcell/Handzus/Simmonds

xx/xx/xx

I don’t really have a problem with the first three lines. I think Moller would do better as C2 than Stoll would. So that doesn’t bother me. But I have a problem with the fourth line. Which is my usual problem, since I hate hate hate the Ivanans/Zeiler/Richardson island-of-misfit-toys line.

Maybe Dean should sign Theo Fleury to center the fourth line, or at least get him to camp. Is that Calgary offer firm yet? Didn’t I read that somewhere?

I guess in a few days, we’ll know if it’s reasonable to expect any of Clune, King, Westgarth, Clifford (?? I know, that’s a loooooong shot), etc., to be possible this season. A Clune/Fleury/Westgarth line is kind of funny to contemplate.

So, for now — and since we don’t really know what the deal is with Stoll — I’m going to have to say that any time off for him is an opportunity for Moller, Purcell and some other kids I like. And maybe it will force Dean to bring in someone who can play on a real fourth line. I hope it doesn’t mean — as Matthew suggests — that he’s going to deal Frolov for a center and a defenseman.

Utterly Irrational Trade Thought Involving Other People’s Stars

I was just looking at San Jose’s numbers.

They have a cap hit of $55.4 with seven players left to sign, to get to 23. That’s simply not doable, even if they populate the rest of their team entirely with entry level prospects. With the players they have, it’s reasonable to assume signing the remaining 4-7 players will take them up at least another $4MM.

Which will put them about $3MM over the cap, at minimum.

There are several possible salary dumps that would get them back under the cap. In descending order of salary: Thornton, Boyle, Marleau, Cheechoo, Michalek, Ehrhoff. (I assume Blake and Clowe, just re-signed, will not be traded.) I think it’s likely that they will end up needing to dump slightly more than the salaries of the last three guys, which narrows the field down to Thornton, Boyle and Marleau. (They’ve been trying to trade Ehrhoff, I believe I read that somewhere, but to no avail and not as a salary dump.) My guess is they’re happiest with Boyle and it’s going to come down to the oft-rumored trade of one of the two big forwards. I think this because of all the talk in San Jose about this version of the Sharks not working, and the blame falling squarely on the shoulders of Thornton and Marleau. It just makes sense that they won’t both be with the team next year. I don’t know what DL’s opinion of Thornton is.

But DL drafted Marleau.

San Jose has only three centers on its roster. Those two, and Pavelski. So they’re going to be amenable to taking a center back. Or two. Which is why I think it’s not crazy to imagine that the Sharks would deal Marleau to the Kings…

…for Stoll, Richardson and a pick.

I know. Stop laughing. But, really: Smyth for Quincey and Preissing??

The Sharks get two centers, one with a nice manageable contract and one who is dirt cheap, both of whom can play. And they get about $2.7MM in cap relief. The Kings get a legitimate top-six center. Whether this happens or not, it is a fact that the Sharks have to deal $3MM worth of contracts to somebody. And somebody like Stoll is about the most they can afford to take back.

I can’t imagine DL isn’t thinking the same thing.

[and yes, I know that Marleau has a NTC. Do I think he would waive it to come to LA and play for Lombardi? By George, yes I do! It's more likely than he would waive it to be traded to Ottawa for Dany Heatley, which is by the way a rumor making "the rounds."]

[late update: if you prefer, the whole exercise works just as well with Thornton, but you would have to throw in another piece to make the cap work for the Kings: Johnson, maybe.]

[p.s. the other ingenious thing about this move is, if the cap plummets next summer, Marleau walks: he's a UFA. Normally, that would be horrible, right? But in this case, it's leverage. It lets DL rent the asset for a year, gives him more room next summer, not less, and then if the cap doesn't drop precipitously, he can re-sign Marleau if he wants to. And Marleau will want to sign here by then, because the Kings will be better than the f'ing Sharks. You heard it here first.]

[p.p.s. I'm sorry, Sharks fans. I used to like the Sharks. But loyalty-challenged Rob Blake's ass checks and Roenick's Roenickyismnessitude(ity) forced my hand. (I know he's gone, but the stench lingers.) I rooted for you two seasons ago in the playoffs. Does that count for anything?]

Crackpot Roster Musings: Kings 09-10

Assumptions: Kings sign one of Hossa, Gaborik or Havlat. Kings keep the number five pick and select MSP, Kane or Duchene, whoever is left. 

FORWARDS:

If Hossa or Havlat:

Frolov/Kopitar/Hossa-Havlat 

Williams/Stoll/Brown [North American drive-to-the-net ass-kicking, hits and goals]

Lewis/Handzus/Simmonds [shut-down]

Purcell/Loktionov/Moller [the real first line]

If Gaborik:

Frolov/Kopitar/Williams

Gaborik/Stoll/Brown

Lewis/Handzus/Simmonds

Purcell/Loktionov/Moller

[The #5 pick will obviously have the opportunity to dislodge one of Lewis, Purcell, Loktionov or Moller (or Wudrick, for that matter). I'm willing to imagine that one of the realistically too-young prospects surprises everyone and makes the team, but I've chosen Loktionov as my representative of that crackpot fantasy. Could easily be Kane, Duchene, MSP -- whichever one -- or Wudrick.]

DEFENSE:

Johnson/Doughty

Quincey/Greene

SOD/Hickey

Voynov/Drewiske

 

GOAL:

Quick

Ersberg