Breaking Down the Marian Hossa Signing – Second City Hockey
The Bad:
Well – the cap situation is even more of a mess. That shit ain’t good. I thought they’d only be offering a one-year deal to anyone since next year is going to be Salary Cap Doomsday with Toews, Kane and Keith all due hefty raises. With 5.2 due to Hossa now it’s going to make it a lot trickier to get all three of them signed. Sure it’s possible but all that money can’t go to just 6 players, they can’t play the whole game. Though Kane-Toews-Hossa with Campbell-Keith and Huet ain’t too bad if they could play 60 minutes.
There’s also the situation with Havlat. Like the Savard situation, it probably could have been handled better, though it’s also half Havlat’s fault for getting on twitter with his agent to confess his undying love for Chicago and the fans. It puts Tallon in a position of either signing a player he doesn’t want or letting a player walk and making him the bad guy in the eyes of the fans. Maybe all contracts should include a no-twitter clause from now on?
via Breaking Down the Marian Hossa Signing – Second City Hockey.
Bitter split? Havlat leaves Chicago for Wild, promises ‘real story’ – Puck … – NHL – Yahoo! Sports
Martin Havlat(notes) has agreed to be the historically fragile offensive talent to replace another historically fragile offensive talent for the Minnesota Wild, signing a six-year, $30 million contract this evening according to the Star Tribune.
Havlat leaves the Chicago Blackhawks after three seasons, his best (and healthiest) coming in 2008-09 with 77 points in 81 games to help lead the Hawks to the Western Conference finals. He had 15 points in 16 playoff games as well.
Sniff, sniff … anyone else smell smoke? That’s the bridge to Chicago that Havlat might be igniting soon, according to his official Twitter feed. The following appeared after the Wild signing:
“Excited to be in Minny where I was welcomed and appreciated by management. The real story about what happened in Chicago to come out.”
And later:
“There’s something to be said for loyalty and honor.”
Well, that didn’t come off too bitter. The Blackhawk’s long-term commitment to Marian Hossa(notes) likely spelled the end for Havlat in the Windy City. And at 6-foot-1, he obviously was over the height requirement to be signed by the Montreal Canadiens.
As for Minnesota, they’re getting a quality two-way player coming off a massively successful contract year. He led the Blackhawks with 2.89 points per 60 minutes in 81 games — that’s killer. Hard to imagine how he’ll hit those numbers again in Minnesota, but 60-65 points and the ability to make his linemates better makes this a good hockey move.
Financially … well, the cap hit’s about right considering how Marian Gaborik(notes) reset the market earlier in the day after leaving the Wild for the New York Rangers. It’s actually a lower hit than he had on his last deal with Chicago ($6 million). But for all the puckheads screaming about how five years for Gaborik is too long for someone that F-R-A-G-I-L-E … how’s six years for Marty Havlat treatin’ you?
via Bitter split? Havlat leaves Chicago for Wild, promises ‘real story’ – Puck … – NHL – Yahoo! Sports.
HockeyBuzz.com – Matthew Barry – KINGS FANS NEED TO CALM THE HELL DOWN
Several teams have left themselves ripe for raiding: How does Chicago pay for Kane and Towes and Keith who are RFA’s next year, not to mention Versteeg and Seabrook? Who does Calgary dump? 40 million for just 8 players? The Rangers have 40 million committed to just 15 players, I’m still trying to figure out how Boston pays for Phil Kessel and can someone tell me how the Flyers can add Pronger, Lappy and Boucher without begging a team like the Kings to take salary off their hands?
Lombardi is playing poker and he’s not showing his hand, while others are throwing unnecessary dollars into an ever growing pot. Offer sheets could certainly be put on the table, but that doesn’t seem to be Lombardi’s style… but ask yourself, what WOULD Chicago do if Lombardi offered Kane or Toews multi million/multi-year offer sheets next season when the cap is expected to be lower?
Allow me to answer the rhetorical question: nothing. Because they can’t match if it puts them more than 10% over the cap. So. They’re. Screwed. Watch the frenzy to dump Brian Campbell’s ridiculous contract play out in slow motion for the next several months. I’m sure there’s someone stupid enough to bite, but who has the cap space?
What also has Lombardi sitting in the cat bird seat is most of the big names have headed East. Calgary will be hard pressed to replace 35 goals. Minnesota’s golden boy is a Ranger, Pronger is a Flyer, San Jose was inactive, Columbus and St Louis did little. Vancouver shot their wad with the twins, Dallas and Nashville and Phoenix and St Louis did nothing and Edmonton is about to add a locker room cancer. How are the Kings weaker?
So for those Kings fans that are whipped into a frenzy, the Kings are in great shape. They could still easily trade for Marco Sturm. They could still easily sign “filler” players for one or two years, and if Ilya Kovalchuk or Rick Nash decide to test the free agent waters next season, guess who will be one of a handful of teams who will be able to AFFORD one of these silly 12 year deals.
via HockeyBuzz.com – Matthew Barry – KINGS FANS NEED TO CALM THE HELL DOWN.
Illegalcurve.com (illegalcurve) on Twitter
Biggest winners today were the ones who didn’t get involved in this mayhem…
Kevin Allen (kausatoday) on Twitter
With TSN saying Hossa signed with Chicago for 12 years, I have 'Hawks at $34 mill for eight players in 2010-11 witn no Kane, Toews, Keith
Pokecheck (Pokecheck) on Twitter
Hossa will be 42 when his Chicago contract is up. Chicago, you came so close to being cool again. Epic fail. Epic.
In light of today’s events, I looked up my old post: Can you afford to sign Hossa?
[NOTE: some of the musings are out of date; I am not updating anything other than to throw some highlighting on the Chicago stuff and I am adding one editorial comment in a big blue font; you have been warned]
Let’s organize this by “contenders, “Stocks rising,” “Stocks falling” and “rebuilders.”
Contenders:
Detroit — in this thought experiment, they have signed Franzen and let Hossa go. [UPDATE: Detroit has signed Franzen, so we're half way there]
San Jose — $10MM in cap space with 11 players to sign, including Clowe, Goc and Moen. Also, they have Marleau to think about, who is a free agent in 2010. Verdict: they can’t do it.
Boston — $10MM in cap space with 10 players to sign, including Kessel and Krejci. Verdict: can’t.
Washington — $11MM in cap space with 10 players to sign. Verdict: can’t.
New Jersey — $16MM in cap space with 11 players to sign. Hmm. Lots of space, relative to the others. They’ve got Gionta, Madden, Holik, Rupp, Shannahan, Oduya, Havelid, Zajac and one of Weekes or Clemmenson to sign. Let’s say they commit $8MM to Hossa. Now they’ve got $8MM left to sign 10 players. So, I’m going to say it’s just barely doable, but they would be replacing all the aforementioned vets with prospects or like-priced players. It would therefore be a totally different team. Verdict: can’t.
Chicago — $20MM in cap space with 13 players to sign. They’ve got six or seven RFAs this summer and Toews and Kane RFA in 2010, so they can’t do anything to their cap that would push those salaries through the roof. If they don’t re-sign Havlat or Khabibulin, they could conceivably sign Hossa, and Hossa might actually like playing in Chicago with Kane and Toews. However, it would be dangerous, since Kane and Toews will get big money in’10 and there simply wouldn’t be room for all those contracts. Is Chicago willing to part with Havlat, Bulin wall this year, and make themselves vulnerable to an offer sheet for Kane or Toews which they would be hard-pressed to match? I doubt it, but crazier things have happened. Let’s say they sign Hossa to $8MM this year and then next summer they sign Kane and Toews to contracts at…(okay, I have no idea, but I’m going to conservatively say) $11MM/year total for the two of them put together. [UPDATE: after the playoffs these two have had, their prices are going up.] For the 2010 season, they would then have $10MM in cap space with a likelihood that it will be less than that because the cap will probably come down, and they will have 15 players to sign. So in that light, signing Hossa would be a horrible idea that would only look horrible after the 2009 season. Verdict: shouldn’t (one step down from can’t). Doesn’t mean they won’t. But I think they won’t. Because I think they’re not stupid.
[UPDATE: THEY ARE THAT STUPID.]
Calgary — $11MM in cap space with 10 players to sign. They can’t afford Cammy, but they’re going to sign Hossa? Verdict: can’t.
(bonus category!) Second Tier Contenders:
Philly — $4MM in cap space, five players to sign. Verdict: can’t.
Carolina — $14MM cap space, 9 players to sign. It’s almost kinda sorta possible for them, if they let Cole walk as a UFA. Say they sign Hossa, then they’ll have $6MM left to sign 8 players. If they let Ruutu walk as well, they could just about do it. And it might sort of be worth it, but there would be some retooling needed the next year with a big crop of UFAs coming ripe, many of whom would have to go. Verdict: possible (which is like shouldn’t but with slightly more upside).
Vancouver — a whopping $25MM in cap space, but with 13 players to sign. Of their nine biggest forward contracts, only three are signed for next year (Demitra, Kessler and Johnson). That’s one top-six player. They’ve got eight UFAs who could end up anywhere. It’s anybody’s guess what’s going to happen to the Sedins and Sundin. Vancouver certainly could make room for Hossa, sort of plug him into the Sundin expensive UFA slot. But if I’m Hossa, I don’t think I’m willing to sign a long-term contract with a team that has so many question marks that won’t be answered until the end of the summer, if then. Verdict: won’t work.
Pittsburgh — $10MM cap space, 10 players to sign. Can’t.
Montreal — $34MM in cap space, 13 players to sign. Their biggest forwards under contract are two Kostitsyns and Georges Laraque. Everyone else is UFA or RFA. If I’m Hossa, I have no idea what this team is going to look like in the fall. Verdict: won’t work.
Rangers — $15MM in cap space, 14 players to sign. Can’t.
Stocks Rising:
Columbus — $17MM in cap space, 6 players to sign. Hmm. Team is up and coming, good coach, that’s all good if you’re Hossa. They might even be able to keep some space for re-signing Nash the following summer, which is their biggest upcoming cap issue. Verdict: possible.
Nashville — $24MM cap space, 11 players to sign. I’m just going to say that’s doable. I’m not sure what would make Hossa pick Nashville over Columbus or Los Angeles, but the numbers themselves could work.
St Louis — $13MM cap space, 6 players to sign. They’ve got an Erik Johnson and goalie issue the following summer, but they could conceivably sign Hossa at $8MM and five more players with the remaining $5MM. They would be cutting Tkachuk loose, but that’s okay. Add them to the list of teams that could swing it, but again, why Hossa would pick St. Louis over anybody else in this category is beyond me.
Los Angeles — $14MM cap space, 4 players to sign. Two of those — Purcell and Boyle — will be cheap-ish. The third, Johnson, will be medium expensive. Plenty of room to sign Hossa. The pitch is, come skate with Kopitar and Frolov. The team is built so that they don’t have to break up the core because of any one contract, even Hossa’s. Also, the team doesn’t have to cut anyone loose to make it work (c.f. Carolina, Chicago, Minnesota). Verdict: doable.
Stocks falling:
Minnesota — oh, I don’t know. Maybe their stock really isn’t falling. They could afford him by not re-signing Gaborik, but what’s the point of that? I get it from the team’s point of view, but not from Hossa’s. Who’s he going to skate with?
Edmonton — $10MM in cap space, 6 players to sign. Can’t.
Buffalo — $10MM in cap space, 9 players to sign. Can’t.
Anaheim — they’re dumping assets. Once they decide what’s happening with Niedermayer, they’ll have a better idea how much cap space they have left. And they can hardly put themselves in a cap position where next summer (’10) they can’t afford to pay Bobby Ryan. Anyway, so many reasons Hossa won’t end up in Orange County. [UPDATE: the Ducks redeemed themselves quite a bit since I originally wrote this, but I'm going to stick with the assessment that they are on a downward trajectory and in any case have too many cap issues to work out. And I really don't think Hossa wants to go to the hated Ducks. Projection on my part? Maybe.]
Dallas — They could let Lehtinen and Morrison walk, sign Zubov and pay Hossa his $8MM. They’d then have three or four million to sign five players, which could happen. But Dallas can hardly pitch themselves as a team of the future, cap space or not.
Ottawa — no cap space, too many big contracts already.
Rebuilding:
Toronto, Phoenix, Atlanta, Colorado, Tampa Bay, Islanders — he’s not going to a team that’s virtually guaranteed to miss the playoffs.
So, to sum up: Chicago, Carolina, Nashville, St. Louis and Los Angeles (and you may as well throw Minnesota into the mix), all could do it. One is a contender. One is sort of almost one. The rest are not. If I’m Hossa, and those are my choices, I would try for either Chicago or LA. If the Chicago numbers are what I think they are (i.e. season after next the whole house of cards falls apart if they sign Hossa), that really leaves LA looking pretty good.
Not to say Hossa will therefore sign with the Kings. My point is merely that a lot of Hossa’s first choice destinations become far less likely once you look at the numbers. And that calculus always leaves the Kings looking better by comparison.
OK, so now it seems likely Hossa will be headed to LA after all…
…but only because that’s where the good shrinks are, and he’ll be needing years of therapy to recover from Cup-induced PTSD. I actually expect the Wings to sign him now, because for him to leave Detroit after one year, in search of a Cup on yet another team, would be just lame. I was wondering, during the Chicago series, if Chicago were to win that series, would he then go sign with Chicago, setting up the sort of delightful pattern where he always has to sign with whoever beats him, like a demented version of Stockholm Syndrome. Maybe he’ll do a Kariya deal with the Wings for $1MM or something.
cut-and-paste of my own comment from Inside the Kings, just so I don’t forget I said it and because it’s so hard to find anything in the Inside the Kings archives
The season after next will be interesting cap-wise, as [commenter "src3" on the Inside the Kings "board" said] said. Not just because of Frolov being a UFA and the cap coming down a bit, but also because both Quincey and Quick will be RFA. Next year, Fro’s hit is 2.9, Quick’s .8, Quincey’s .6, and it would be reasonable to expect those three to be at cap hits of 5, 2.5 and 2.5, conservatively, with their new contracts. That’s AT LEAST $6MM more cap room we’re going to need, not next year, but the year after (which, after all, is really just next summer, one year from now — yikes).
Is DL factoring that into his thoughts about Frolov and whoever he’s going to bring in this year as a UFA (or via trade)? Absolutely. And clearly trading Frolov would make room for whatever will be necessary to do for the 2010 season. But, since DL has to think Frolov will be tradable at the deadline or even next summer, I don’t know that he’s really going to worry too much about that now. Actually, I think DL might make the calculation that putting Frolov and (to pick one of the UFA names) Hossa on the same line will drive Frolov’s numbers way up, thus driving his value up as well. In other words, it’s reasonable to assume that Frolov will be more valuable a year from now than he is now. And he’s pretty valuable now.
But let’s play the thought experiment:
Kings sign Hossa (or Havlat or Gaborik), re-sign Frolov, Purcell, Johnson and Boyle. Now, let’s skip the entire 09-10 season. It’s summer of ’10. Quick has had a great year, as have Quincey and Drewiske (all RFAs). They are resigned at 2.75, 2.5, 1.5. Frolov at 5. That’s a cap hit of $11.75. Let’s just say that’s a cap increase of $7MM. SOD retires.
Frolov/Kopitar/Hossa
Williams/Stoll/Brown
xx/Handzus/xx
xx/xx/xx
The xx’s are the smaller contracts (Moller, Boyle, Purcell, Simmonds, whoever we draft this year, etc.).
Here’s what I think the actual strategy will be (and, in fact, ought to be). Sign the big UFA, resign Frolov, go up to within a couple million of the cap ceiling. Clearly, next summer, something will have to give. Somebody’s big contract is going to have to go, maybe two somebodies. But does DL want to get rid of Frolov NOW because he’s got to pay Handzus for two more years? I don’t think so. Handzus, actually, I think is the most vulnerable of all the big salaries. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him traded at the deadline next year. I think Handzus was the team MVP last season by numerous measures; but he’s overpaid and he’s a third-line center ideally. Also, he’s a defensive specialist and will be attractive to someone at the deadline, as he supposedly was this year.
Trading Handzus would be, of course, entirely dependent on other centers stepping it up and proving themselves to be ready. Namely, Moller, Boyle, Lewis, Loktionov, Azevedo, someone we might be drafting in a month…
Meanwhile, there are other candidates to be moved. Let’s say, for example, that we sign Hossa and keep Frolov, and next year we have our first line (with Kopitar) the likes of which we haven’t seen since Palffy/Alison/Deadmarsh. Now, what happens if Brown has a crappy year next season? He might be the one to get dealt. Let’s just say, Handzus is a rock and the first line is clicking… DL is going to be looking very closely at that group of Williams, Stoll and Brown. One of them would literally HAVE to be traded. Same thing is true on defense. If the prospects don’t pan out next season and don’t look like they’re progressing, veterans like Greene are safe. But if the prospects pick it up, Greene is another contract that can be dealt.
I think DL will play this out very deliberately and carefully. And you [SRC3] are certainly correct that if DL signs a UFA this July, next summer something’s gotta give. I just don’t think that means Frolov will be leaving. One of Frolov, Kopitar, Brown, Stoll, Handzus, Williams or Greene — definitely. In 2010. Not now.
Think of it the other way. You aren’t going to deny yourselves Hossa and Frolov this season because you might have to trade Handzus or Greene next season, right?
Kings Cap Issues, 2009-2010 [UPDATE]
Next year, the Kopitar and Greene contracts kick in; Williams’ cap hit is a bit higher than O’Sullivan’s this season; we will likely sign JJ for around $3MM $2.5MM $2.25MM (I’m going for O’Sullivan-ish numbers, with a little discount because Johnson hasn’t quite achieved at even POS’s level yet – as with POS, his contract will be about potential); Purcell will get a nominal (i.e. probably infinitesimal) raise. Letting Calder, Gauthier and Armstrong go, buying out Preissing, we will have a cap hit of $44.688MM $43.938MM, with four roster spots to fill (2 forwards and 2 defensemen).
Assume that one of the D is a prospect (one of Hickey or Voynov, for example, or maybe Drewiske). If it’s Drewiske, he would be a cap hit of .525. If it’s Hickey, assume a Doughty-ish contract with a similar bonus structure, cap hit plus bonus of around $2.5MM (my best uninformed guess – Hickey has signed a contract but figures haven’t been quoted yet; if you wanted to assume the most Hickey’s contract would be, not the least as I tried to do above, plug in the Doughty numbers), add $1.348 (per Rich Hammond). If it’s Voynov, he gets probably somewhere around .700 (again, pulling a number more or less out of my hat — if you want to assume maximum entry level, add $200K). I would say that DL has to leave room for Hickey to make the team in the fall. He can’t go into camp with a cap figure such that if Hickey makes it he has to trade someone away to stay under the cap (the penalty for going over the cap due to bonuses is to have the overage tacked onto next season’s cap total — with the cap already thought to be coming down in 2010, DL can’t afford to have the Kings cap come down even farther…of course, that’s only an issue if he’s thinking of jumping into the UFA market or otherwise approaching the cap ceiling this summer; if not, it’s moot). So I think we have to plug in the Hickey number. For the other D, I would assume it’s either a prospect or a cheap UFA (like SOD was this year). I’m going to guess it’s a UFA at what SOD got last year: $1.25MM. So that’s an additional $3.75MM $2.598MM. But could be done with Voynov and Drewiske (no UFA veteran, no Hickey) for 1.25ish (a savings of $1.36MM).
[UPDATE: DL, in 3/30/09's 'teleconference call' with ticket holders, mentioned Drewiske among the solid Kings d core, i.e. Doughty, Johnson, Quincey, Greene, Drewiske. This makes me think Drewiske's stock is way up and he might well take the place of a vet UFA d-man on next year's roster. I'm not going to change the numbers quoted below, but know that you can subtract 700K from everything that follows for the Drewiske/Hickey option.]
Total is now at $46.54MM. And we have two forwards to sign.
More than two if you’re getting rid of Zeiler or Ivanans. Since both those guys are affordable, I’m going to assume that they either stick around or are replaced by like-priced players (e.g. Clune, Cliche).
As for the two spots to fill, I’m going to say one goes to a prospect. I pick Trevor Lewis. Could be Boyle. Doesn’t matter. The cap hit would be .855 for Lewis. Will Boyle re-sign and get a raise? He’s at .835 now. I don’t see him getting more than $1MM. So let’s be conservative, and call it .855 (the Lewis figure). [UPDATE: in the conference call with ticket holders, DL went out of his way to mention that his RFAs Johnson and Boyle will be matched (if someone throws an offer sheet at them); this suggests more faith in Boyle than many of us imagined; also, why didn't he mention Purcell, also an RFA? Well, maybe it was just a slip; he does talk fast. In any case, we now have to factor in that maybe Boyle will get a real raise in a new deal. Again, I will not adjust the numbers below, but you can all mentally tack on a couple hundred thousand dollars.]
Now we’re up to $47.39MM. And we have one forward left.
If the last spot is a prospect, too, then the cap hit will be at almost exactly $48MM. [UPDATE: a little less if it's Drewiske and not a UFA D-man; but a little more if Boyle gets more of a raise than we previously thought; so $48MM is still a good, safe bet; if you want a range, call it $47.3-48.5MM.]
But if it’s a UFA? Hossa? How much? $8MM? Okay, now we’re $55.39MM, a couple of bucks from the cap ceiling. Maybe you get Hossa for a little less than $8MM (doubt it though), or maybe we go with a cheaper defense (no Hickey, no UFA d, etc.). Or maybe we shed some salary somewhere else. But where? Who are you going to deal? Handzus, Frolov, for picks? For a cheaper forward and a prospect? That could happen, I guess. Maybe the cap goes up a few dollars and that gives DL more room (temporarily, because everyone seems to think the cap is coming down the following year).
Or maybe it’s Gaborik (not my choice) and it’s less than $8MM. But you have to be careful, because if the point is to get a top-line sniper/finisher, you don’t want to buy damaged goods, or the budget version of what you really want. Because the budget version is likely to be similar to what we have already, and that defeats the purpose of spending our way up to the cap ceiling in the first place. It’s only worth it if you get yourself a 40-50 goal scoring machine.
Plan B could be some kind of Kovalchuk for Frolov (plus, for example, Handzus, Johnson, Hickey and a 1st) swap. Two guys in the last year of their contracts, etc.. Would that be a good trade? Well, it’s obviously an upgrade on sniper-power. But trading away the future…I wouldn’t do it. And Atlanta ain’t going to do it for Frolov and Johnson by themselves, or whatever spare parts Kings fans might fantasize about (e.g. the Calder, Preissing, Armstrong, Ersberg, Gauthier, Darryl Evans and a 1st for Kovalchuk rumors of the past season). So I would pass on that one. Probably, I would.
But the overriding point — the thing I keep relearning every time I crunch the numbers (to the best of my limited ability as a fan) — is that “tons of cap space” can quickly become “over the cap” with just one signing. Everyone who is saying let’s sign Bouwmeester or whatever, keep that in mind. Even the Kings, with a relatively low cap figure compared to everyone else, can’t afford more than one big guy. So it stands to reason we ought to think really hard about who that one guy is. There is no, “if we had Bouwmeester and Kovalchuk and Luongo we would be contenders.” No team can afford three pieces like that. Those days are over.
But, more importantly, why is Kovalchuk in a kilt?
Red Wings Central – Red Wings Cap Trouble Generator Allows You to See for Yourself What I’ve Been Saying About Keeping Hossa
Try it. You won’t like it.
CBC Hotstove: Kings content (as in CON-tent, not con-TENT)
April 18 edition. Sports – Satellite Hotstove – CBC.ca.
Pundits talk Kings, Gaborik, possible UFA signings. Mostly about seven minutes into the clip.
Sunday NHL Rumor Roundup – April 19, 2009.
Al Strachan suggested it was now “highly likely” Marian Gaborik will remain with the Minnesota Wild now that GM Doug Risebrough and head coach Jacques Lemaire are no longer with the team. Pierre LeBrun however isn’t so sure, having spoken with Gaborik’s Los Angeles-based agent Ron Salcer who said his camp will listen to anything Minnesota offers but with July 1st approaching they might see what else is out there. Strachan points out the Kings intend to make a big pitch for a major UFA forward and mentioned Gaborik, Marian Hossa and the Sedins as possibilities…
SPECTOR’S NOTE: [...]
The Kings will undoubtedly be a significant player in this summer’s UFA market but it remains to be seen who they land via free agency. Whoever they get has to be someone who can fit comfortably into a leadership role with a promising young Kings team…
Toronto Sports Media Blog: Is Matt Gilroy Going Elsewhere? Burke Entering the Cone Of Silence?
Sounds like Matt Gilroy is going to sign elsewhere. Word I am hearing is that Burke wouldn’t give Gilroy a 1 way deal and that other teams, including the Canucks where willing to give him a one way deal. Not over yet, but the fat lady is warming up.
Similarly, sounds like Burke is in the lead for signing the Monster. Nothing is imminent, but I was told that things would really have to come off the rails for him not to sign in Toronto.
Darren Dreger is reporting on his blog that Burke has already called the GM’s of the Tampa Lightning and NY Islanders. Dreger suggests that Luke Schenn would almost certainly be a part of the ask from either team in exchange for either of the top two picks. Addition by subtraction???? Stay tuned.
via Is Matt Gilroy Going Elsewhere? Burke Entering the Cone Of Silence? | Toronto Sports Media Blog.
Incompetent B.S. from the Edmonton Journal on the Topic of Hossa, Franzen and the cap
It’s no surprise that Johan Franzen is getting an 11-year, $43-million contract that runs until 2021 to spread out the cap hit ($1 million the final two, years when he’ll be 38 and 39 years old).
Uh no, the cap hit is the same every year, dumba**. [UPDATE: oh, I see. The parenthetical refers not to that which precedes it, but to the contracted payment; at least, I think that's what he thinks he's saying.]
Same story with Henrik Zetterberg ($6.1 million cap hit over 12 years). They may eventually close that loophole, but Wings’ GM Ken Holland is simply playing by the rules now. And Franzen’s average cap hit of $3.95 million is actually close to what a veteran agent thought he’d get last week. Franzen will get $36 million in the first seven years, starting at $5.5 million next season — his salary more in tune with his tremendous goal-scoring ability. “Let’s see now, we have an 11-year contract and a 12-year contract, so I guess Marian will take 10 or 13 years,” laughed Hossa’s agent Ritch Winter, who talked to Holland about numbers Saturday, although Holland won’t be able to sign Hossa until June because of their cap situation.
Actually, that makes no sense at all.
Hossa is going nowhere. His cap hit will be in the $6-million range. “I will tell you this: despite what people are saying, the salary cap in Detroit will definitely be no impediment to Marian signing there,” said Winter.
Right. Do the math: in order for the Wings to sign Hossa with a cap hit of $6MM, they will have to dump at least two huge salaries. Who are they going to get rid of? Filppula and Stuart? Kronwall and Stuart? Take your pick. But you can’t say there will be “no impediment.”
UPDATE: Just to be sure, I added the numbers up again. A Hossa cap hit of $6MM would leave the Wings with a cap number of $59.3 with four players left to sign. That means, assuming entry level salaries, that they would have a cap hit of around $62MM. Assume the cap will go up nominally, a couple million. The Wings must shed at least one huge salary and probably two, in addition to losing Samuelsson and Hudler. So call it Samuelsson, Hudler, Stuart and maybe someone else. I don’t believe it. And still, it’s not NO impediment.
via More Hockey World .
Is A Matt Gilroy Decision Imminent? | Toronto Sports Media Blog
The championship game in the NCAA tourney is tonight. How long thereafter will Matt Gilroy sign his first NHL contract? Everyone and their mother has an opinion and thought as to where he is going to land. I have it on good authority that the teams he is talking to is down to 3. I am also told that one of them is the Toronto Maple Leafs. When I say he is talking, I mean his agent, as Gilroy can’t technically talk to anyone if he wants to play in tonight’s game. I have yet to hear with any degree of certainty who the other 2 teams are, but Hanky is suggesting that he is going to either the Flyers or Blackhawks. While these are among the teams I have heard from a few folks, none of the people are very reliable. Should be interesting to see if Burke can swing this one. He followed him when he was with the Ducks and now the buds.
via Is A Matt Gilroy Decision Imminent? | Toronto Sports Media Blog.
Detroit’s Cap Issues UPDATED FRANZEN CONTRACT EDITION
Datsyuk 6.7, Zetterberg 6, Franzen 3.95, Filppula 3.0, Cleary 2.8, Holmstrom 2.25, Draper 1.583, Maltby .750, Lidstrom 7.45, Rafalski 6.0, Stuart 3.75, Kronwall 3.0, Lilja 1.25, Lebda .650, Meech .483, Ericsson .900, Osgood 1.417, Hudler RFA, Hossa UFA, Samuelsson UFA, Kopecky UFA, Conklin UFA.
TOTAL $52.016
But need to sign 6 forwards and 1 goalie. If the goalie is Howard, add 0.717. Now: $52.733. That leaves $3.967MM left to sign six forwards.
[the following is cut-and-paste from my previous analysis of Holland's options, from a few weeks ago -- with today's updates/edits indicated:]
Option #1: Sign Hossa for…I don’t know…say $5MM (cap hit), which is about a million less than the pay cut everything thinks he’s going to get. But let’s call it $5MM. Maybe Holland does some fancy footwork and front loads the contract so the cap hit is less than the salary. That would leave just under $3MM for six forwards. Which is under $500K per guy. Which means they would have to let go not only of Franzen, but Samuelsson, Hudler and Kopecky and replace them with dirt cheap prospects at, well, league minimum salary. And this would put them exactly at the cap, which give Holland no wiggle room at all. I think Hossa is going to cost more than a $5MM cap hit, but since the Zetterberg hit is $6MM, I’m going to say it’s possible. I just don’t think even at that price they can avoid dismantling the team. So, basically, that option sucks. [option #1 is off the table]
Option #2: Let Hossa walk; sign Franzen at a cap hit of $3.5MM (front loading salary, I guess). [cap hit of $3.95MM, as it turned out] That would leave something like $4.5MM $4MM to sign six other forwards. Still tight, but doable. Sign two of Samuelsson, Kopecky and Hudler (for the sake of argument, let Hudler walk and sign the other for…less than $2MM total; again, a stretch, but doable). That would leave $2.7MM-ish [$2.2MM-ish] for 4 forwards, which means four prospects basically. That’s possible, but just barely. UPDATE: Assuming the cap goes up nominally this season, it will give Holland the room to make this work. Again, no wiggle room, but in this scenario, they’ve retained Franzen, Samuelsson and Kopecky (say), and lost only Hossa and Hudler. That’s a more-balanced roster. But still, it’s financially very, very [UPDATE: VERY VERY VERY] tight.
Option #2a: Holland convinces Hossa to take the offer he was going to give to Franzen, $3-4MM. Then he lets Franzen walk. This will never happen. Thus the “2a” designation.
Option #3: Trade someone away for picks and prospects, clearing some cap space. Only four names seem even remotely plausible, and two of those are borderline: Filppula, Cleary, Stuart and Kronwall. Their salaries are big enough to make a difference. Trading a forward creates a hole in the roster that you have to fill, however, so I’m going to say option #3 would require moving a defenseman. Stuart or Kronwall. Stuart, probably. Trade Stuart to someone for picks or prospects or (maybe even better), prospects who can fill those cheap forward slots. Although that part is not as important as freeing up the salary. Then, with just shy of $11.75MM to spend, maybe they can sign both Hossa and Franzen. Still, how much would those two (combined) have to take in order for the numbers to work. Let’s say the other five forwards (Samuelsson, Kopecky, plus three faceless cheap-ass prospects) run $4MM, which is about the cheapest that’s going to happen. That leaves $7.75MM for both Hossa and Franzen. And that’s after having traded away Stuart or Kronwall. And that’s at least $2.25MM less than what the so-called conventional wisdom says those two players might sign for. So common sense says, forget it. It would literally have to be Hossa taking $5MM and Franzen taking less than $3MM. [UPDATE: now that Franzen is locked in at $3.95MM, Hossa would have to take $3.55MM for this option to work.]
Is that going to happen? Oh, probably not. [UPDATE: come on! No way, right?] If Holland can deal a defenseman, free up cap space, and then talk two superstars into accepting a deep pay-cut for the privilege of playing for the Red Wings, he (Holland) deserves some kind of sparkly prize.
Option #4: Several deals to free up even more space. But once you move beyond the option of trading away one expensive player (as per option #3), you’re twisting yourself into a pretzel just to retain two guys that might not be — probably won’t be — worth the contortions.
Holland has to reason that he has won cups without Hossa, and will be able to do so after Hossa moves on to play on that line with Frolov and Kopitar at the beach. I think he lets Hossa walk. [UPDATE: this seems even more likely now.]
Detroit Red Wings sign F Johan Franzen to $43.5 million, 11-year deal – ESPN
Detroit signed forward Johan Franzen to an 11-year, $43.5 million deal Saturday, keeping him off the free agent market and retaining talent that helped the Red Wings win the Stanley Cup.
The contract averages $3.95 million per season. The team said the deal for Franzen, known as Mule, is the second-longest in team history.
via Detroit Red Wings sign F Johan Franzen to $43.5 million, 11-year deal – ESPN.
PRICE FOR BU CAPTAIN WILL BE TELLING – New York Post
Matt Gilroy, the highly regarded Boston University senior defenseman who will become an uncapped free agent the moment his Terriers either win the NCAA title or are eliminated from the tournament, likely will become an early indicator on whether the uncertain NHL economy will depress the summer market.
via New York Post.
“Is this team really that promising?”
Ersberg (commenter on “Inside the Kings,” not the actual Ersberg) asked the following great questions in the Inside the Kings comments section:
“Does anyone else think the Kings seem to not have the type of offense that some teams have that can be a threat on almost any possession? They just seem anemic on O, [yet] they have a lot of the same guys as they did last season [who] scored a lot. [...] With [...] regard to our prospects [...] how are [they] going to get it done next season?
[...] Is it, in fact, Terry’s system? Are we missing key guys? Are some of our ‘older, younger’ guys not what we thought they’d be (Kop, Fro, Brown, etc.)? Was it a fluke last season when guys like Brown scored 30+? Is it the guys below our top scorers [...] that are the issue[...]? [...] [D]o you feel our guys have a higher “ceilings” than what we’re seeing? Do you see guys like Johnson, Greene, Quincey getting better? What about Purcell, who’s 24(?) [...]? It seems like they’re trying real, real hard, but they end up coming short, which is why I believe they need some more changes and additional players.
Who do we add? Who goes? Who do you think will actually want to come here? [...] Is this team really that promising? Columbus [...] has had a lot of changes, some very young additions, and they are sitting in a playoff spot. I see the Kings being very much the same.
[...] In addition [...], ask yourselves this: when was the last team any sports team (4 major sports) went cheap, and won a championship? I’m thinking it was the Angels in 2002. It seems to me we’re a ‘cheap’ team.”
The problem on offense: certainly, part of the drop in production is due to TM’s defensive system. There’s really no way around that. You’re always going to sacrifice some offense when you play a tighter defense. As it has turned out, the Kings GF and GA have both dropped about 0.3 goals/game. So it’s basically a wash. However, notice that reducing both goals-for and goal-against by the same amount has resulted in better results (assuming the Kings don’t proceed to lose the next nine games).
Looking at the offensive numbers: this season, the Kings have averaged 2.0 goals per 60 minutes of 5-on-5. Last season, they averaged 2.3. That’s all of our loss of production. Five-on-four, the Kings are up to 6.6 goals/60min from 5.8 the previous year. Five-on-three, we’re at 22.9, up from 21.0 [just to clarify, 22.9 goals/60, 5-on-3, means that if they were to play an entire game 5-on-3, they would score on average 22.9 goals]. In short, this season, the special teams are slightly better, and 5-on-5 we’re much worse. Of course, it’s 5-on-5 where the defensive system is in full force, so that’s another reason it must shoulder (at least) some of the blame.
Actually, those numbers alone ought to be enough for those who are predisposed to blame TM to put the last few nails in the coffin. My purely statistical response to that would be, per above, to point out that a commensurate drop in offense and goals-against yields better results, in terms of wins/points.
I would also say, in TM’s defense, that if the Kings had stuck to their defensive system even more than they have, they would be looking at the playoffs right now. Before the season started, I pointed out in the ItK comment section that if the Kings were able to reduce their goals-against from last season’s 3.24 (from memory, I could be off a few 1/100ths) to around 2.75 they would make the playoffs, 2.75 being the usual threshold for a playoff team. They were on track to do this for about half the season, I think, but they got sloppy. In this context, TM’s benching of Frolov makes a lot of sense. He (TM) knows that it’s the defense that’s going to make the difference.
Underline: even with the drop-off of production, the Kings would have made the playoffs this year had they stuck to the system. That’s okay. It’s not a knock against the players that they didn’t just magically see the light. You have to learn by experience. 
Re “are we missing key guys?” — DL made a revealing comment in an interview a few weeks ago that [paraphrase] Kopitar was basically a second-line center who has the potential to be a first-line center. The expectation has to be that he grows into the role of #1 center, otherwise frankly he’s not earning his contract. DL was just being honest (maybe too honest, since it opens him up to a lot of criticism — why pay that much for a #2 center, etc.). But I did get the feeling this season that Kopitar looked like the understudy suddenly forced to play the lead part. And he’s done okay, especially of late. But watching him in the #1 center role makes me (and I think a lot of other people) long for a game-changer.
As a mental exercise, I sometimes try to imagine where our various guys would fit in on a powerhouse, elite team, say, Detroit. Kopitar would be a great #2 center on the wings. Brown, a great third line winger. Frolov, 2nd liner, but maybe still in the doghouse for his lapses (see Fedorov). Stoll, 3rd line center. Handzus, third line center. Williams, 2nd line, maybe third. Calder, scratch. Armstrong, waived. Ivanans, Westgarth, waived. Zeiler, waived (they waived Ellis, who is a better Zeiler). What this exercise reminds me is, on the Kings roadmap to Elite-ness-itude (-ity), we’ve already got ourselves a great third line, a great second line, and no first line.
And, boy, doesn’t it feel like that’s just what we have?
I’m not saying Kopitar won’t grow into the #1 center role. I think he will, actually. He’s still a kid. But, as far as “missing key guys” goes, I would say, yes, definitely, it’s time to get a true, top-line sniper, a finisher, a star. You do that, and you take the pressure off Kopitar, he won’t see the other team’s best shift after shift, and he will have room to grow.
re “prospects, how are they going to get it done?” — Simmonds, Doughty and Quincey are unqualified successes this year. Purcell, Moller, Quick and Harrold are successes with asterisks attached. In Purcell’s case, it took him most of the season to get it together. Moller started strong and then had a run of bad luck (followed by TM’s odd insistence on keeping him out of the line-up because he wasn’t strong enough, as if this wasn’t also true at the beginning of the season when he was leading the Kings in PP goals, etc. — file that under “don’t get me started”). Quick was an instant star and then lost some of his star-power, but has still been huge. Harrold gets an asterisk because he’s a “veteran” prospect and he has the curse of doing a lot of things well, but nothing spectacularly well. He’s extremely useful, but easy to pencil out. Of those guys, can we expect them to get better? Absolutely. Simmonds and Moller, for one thing, are kids. They’re physically immature. They’re going to get bigger and stronger. Doughty, we forget that in addition to everything we’ve seen from him, he likes to check, and has been known (as we’ve seen in glimpses of him this season) to take over games. When he’s mature, he’s going to be that much more dominant. Johnson, whom you mentioned, has to play smarter, but that’s not unusual for young defensemen, and JJ is following a much more traditional d prospect path. We’re spoiled by Doughty stepping right in and playing a dominant role. That happens, well, almost never.
Re the Kings being a “cheap” team — It’s hard to argue against that when the Kings have the lowest cap figure in the league. However, I must. First of all, next season, with Kopitar’s and Greene’s contracts kicking in, the Kings will not have the lowest cap figure anymore: they’ll be somewhere around $47-48MM, i.e. more or less halfway between the ceiling and the floor. If they sign a big UFA, they’ll be much, much closer to the ceiling. There’s a good chance the ceiling will come down season after next, and some have said as low as $52MM. This would mean many teams would have to shed salary in order to comply. I don’t think DL is cheap. I think he’s smart. There is simply no way in the post-lock-out NHL to have a team that has several superstar contracts (or even more than two — three is pushing it). You must have a balance between big names, medium names, role players and prospects. Look at Detroit: Holland cannot sign both Hossa and Franzen, unless he’s willing to forego team depth, which he clearly doesn’t want to do. The Kings could easily be in that position in two years, and, p.s. would have been for certain if they had given Cammellari the $6MM he asked for, given POS the $4MM or whatever and kept him, both of which would have meant giving Kopitar more, giving JJ more this summer, etc., etc..
The distance between floor and ceiling is quite small. DL kept near the floor this year. Signed Kopitar and is halfway to the ceiling. This summer, he could go all the way to the ceiling with one signing.
Re “who would want to sign here?” — Let’s take Hossa as an example. Hossa wants to stay in Detroit. Detroit wants him. He’s willing to take less, but how much less is not known, and the talks have stalled. If Hossa doesn’t sign with Detroit, he’s going to seek more money elsewhere. The question is, (1) who wants him? (2) who’s attractive to him? and (3) who can afford him?
Answer to #1: more or less, everybody.
Answer to #2: first choice, a contender. Who are the contenders? San Jose, Washington, Calgary, Chicago, Boston, Vancouver, New Jersey, Pittsburgh. But see answer #3…
Answer to #3: none of the contenders have cap space to sign him. Will someone sign him and then put themselves in the Brian Burke position of having to trade assets when the entire world knows they are over a barrel? Probably, they won’t. Will someone go on a draft day fire sale to shed salary in order to make room for Hossa? Dangerous to do that, since you might not get Hossa, and then where will you be?
Who has the cap space? A bunch of losers, that’s who. I’m including the Kings in that. A bunch of teams that aren’t going to look too attractive to Hossa. Among which, he may have to pick the team with the brightest future. The loser with the brightest future. Among said losers, there is no one regarded to have a brighter future than the Kings.
That’s our hope. We have the cap space, we are the future, and we need to be successful now. Now is the time.
That’s not a horrible pitch. Will it be good enough? Who knows.
re “next season…how are they going to get it done?” — For one thing, it will be a slightly different “they.” I believe DL will push very hard to bring a big UFA forward in. He needs to. As many have pointed out, not getting into the playoffs a year from now will be a failure placed solely at DL’s feet. The pressure is mounting and the team is going to have to produce next season. He’s going to try very hard to bring in some big-bucks snipery finish for the first line. Will he succeed? I am going to put my money on … probably.
So, first piece of the puzzle is one big tasty UFA. Second piece of the puzzle is, no Calder, no Preissing, no Gauthier, no Armstrong, probably no Zeiler, maybe no Ivanans. Third piece, bigger, stronger, older Doughty, Moller and Simmonds. Purcell coming into his own. Lewis hopefully on the team full time on the third line. Hickey, Teubert, Voynov…one of them will make it, maybe even two. Jon Bernier…I still hold out hope that he will top them all in camp this September.
The other issue, I think, is finding a workable fourth line that has an actual theme and purpose and use, as opposed to it just being a catch-all for players who are dressed but benched in the third period. I liked the old Donnelly/Millen third line idea, small/speedy tertiary scoring. I think there’s a version of the Kings with a Moller/Loktionov/Azevedo/Richardson type third line configuration, that would be terrifying and beautiful to behold. That would free up the fourth line to be a Handzus/Lewis/Simmonds/Brown/Wudrick type ordeal. Yes, okay, Brown on the fourth line. But I’m talking about rolling four lines all game, with much more balanced ice-time. Think Detroit. And let all the “unhealthy Detroit fixation” gossip begin.
LetsGoDU Hockey Blog: Tyler Bozak Sparks Free Agent Feeding Frenzy
Tyler Bozak is a 22-year-old center with the University of Denver Pioneers who has seven goals and 18 points in 15 games this season. Many believe he has the potential to step right into the National Hockey League next season without any minor league seasoning.
Bozak’s advisor, Wade Arnott, says 26 teams – including all six Canadian teams – have expressed interest in Bozak.
via LetsGoDU Hockey Blog: Tyler Bozak Sparks Free Agent Feeding Frenzy.
Contract talks between Red Wings and Marian Hossa, Johan Franzen on hold
Contract talks between the Detroit Red Wings and free-agent forwards Marian Hossa and Johan Franzen appear to be at a standstill, as neither side is budging.
General manager Ken Holland is hoping to sign one before the end of the regular season. If he has no deal in place by the first week of April, he will postpone talks until after the playoffs.
“I’ll obviously stay in touch,” Holland said. “I understand where they’re at and they understand where I’m at. We’re talking.
“They both have indicated their first choice is to stay. I can address it in June if I have to. They know the (team’s other) contract commitments.”
Holland met with Hossa’s agent, Ritch Winter, over the weekend. Hossa signed a one-year, $7.45 million deal last July but realizes he must take less (perhaps in the neighborhood of $6 million per season) to stay.
“If we’re not able to find a way, you know what, we had a great player come here for one year,” Holland said.
Franzen’s price tag is expected to be in the $4 million-a-year range.
While Holland said there is a chance he can sign both, he knows he would have to unload a few other players in the process.
“The decision we got to make is, do we want to be top-heavy and not have any depth?” Holland said. “That’s why I’m not rushing into any (moves).”
Edmonton Journal: Hossa? No, sir!
There was never any firm dollar offer on the table, though the Oil’s bidding apparently started at $9 million a year, and could perhaps have gone as high as $100 million over a suitable long, long term.
When Hossa first heard of the Oil’s interest, he had little interest himself, as the Oil haven’t exactly been a powerhouse in recent years, and after his stay in mediocre Atlanta, Hossa had no interest in being the big dog on mediocre team, even if it cost him millions of dollars over the term of his contract.
Katz’s excellent skills of persuasion apparently made Hossa think twice and even thrice about Edmonton, but still he chose elsewhere. He had just finished a happy run to the Stanley Cup finals and wanted more, so he chose the best place for future runs, Detroit.
It’s instructive that Hossa chose Detroit over Pittsburgh, Hossa’s team at the time, and a team loaded with massively talented players in Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin and a few other hot shots.
My guess is that Hossa looked hard at two numbers before making his choice: Pittsburgh, $17.4 million and Detroit, $12.7 million. Those numbers represent the combined totals both teams will pay their superstar forwards, who are all on long-term deals now, with Crosby and Malkin both earning $8.7 million a year in Pittsburgh, and Pavel Datsyuk $6.7 million a year and Henrik Zetterberg $6 million a year in Detroit.
Essentially, this gives the Red Wings almost $5 million a year extra in cap space to sign players. It also gives Detroit a huge competitive advantage when it comes to competing for the Stanley Cup.
via Hossa? No sir! – Cult of Hockey .
And this would be why the Kings can’t afford to overpay players like Cammelleri, POS or Frolov, and why Brown’s deal (especially) is so important. Lombardi has to know — because he has all the numbers — that over-paying for one guy means over-paying for everyone when the time comes.
Of course, I don’t think anyone will be willing to pay Hossa $8-10 million this summer, with the threat of the cap coming down. Which makes it all the more likely he will stay in Detroit.
In the soon to be pervasive debate about whether the Kings, now basically out of the playoffs, should tank it in order to win the Tavares Cup, or continue to try to win meaningless games, I would argue that the only way a player like Hossa would ever consider signing with the Kings is if DL could make the argument that the Kings are The Team of the Future. That argument will be easier to make if the Kings finish strong, with — say — 85 points.
NHL Rumors – Monday, March 23, 2009.
“SPECTOR’S NOTE: The Wings currently have about $9 million in available cap space and St. James suggests they’ll try to dump some lower-end salary this summer. The problem is Wings GM Ken Holland hopes to re-sign both Hossa and Johan Franzen. Even if he can somehow pull this off for this summer and re-signs both without seriously cutting into his roster depth and cap space he’s got to be careful about handcuffing himself for the 2010-11 season, as the cap for that season could drop to as low as $52 million [emphasis mine].”
Ken Holland on Hossa, Franzen
Holland:
“It’s about team building, it’s about our philosophy. We can keep Franzen and Hossa, but then we’ll have to let a whole lot of other players go. I don’t know if that’s the answer to being competitive. But if I can get a number that I think allows us to have one extra player, you start to think more and more about doing something. Right now, I’m not really close to where I’d like to get to with either side.”
Ken Holland seeks price for Marian Hossa | Freep.com | Detroit Free Press.
Komisarek: $6MM+
“…if Komisarek can’t come to terms on a contract extension prior to July 1, the asking price for the league’s premier available shutdown defenseman will assuredly skyrocket to the $6 million per season rate and beyond.”
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